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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Sunday's MLB games

By Todd Zola

  • Those playing in fantasy leagues in which the lineups lock with the first game of the day need to get an early start on Sundays this season, as there will routinely be a game starting at 11:35 a.m. ET. This week's showcase features the San Diego Padres visiting Kyle Wright (90% rostered in ESPN leagues) and the Atlanta Braves. Wright began the season as one of the game's pleasant surprises, but as he exhibited in his most recent outing against the Boston Red Sox, he's still raw and vulnerable to productive lineups. In head-to-head leagues, needs dictate whether to start the 26-year-old right-hander, but if ratios are close, consider benching Wright against a patient Padres offense with a low strikeout rate.

  • Tyler Wells (8% rostered), on the other hand, is in a favorable spot on the road as the Baltimore Orioles wrap up a set in Comerica Park against the Detroit Tigers. The converted reliever is coming off his first quality start of the season, limiting the Kansas City Royals to one run in six frames. The Tigers are, by far, the lowest-scoring team in May, averaging just over two runs per game this month.

  • After winning his MLB debut, Hunter Greene (26%) has lost his next five starts. The fireballing freshman is in a great position to end the streak when the suddenly hot Cincinnati Reds visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucs whiff at the fifth-highest clip in the league against right-handers, rendering Greene and his 28% strikeout rate in play as a spot starter and DFS play.

  • The Red Sox will treat Sunday as a bullpen game, with Josh Winckowski being called up from Triple-A Worcester to start. Winckowski has been in the rotation for the WooSox but likely won't be asked to give the Red Sox five frames. As such, you can roll the dice on a Boston reliever to vulture a win, with John Schreiber an under-the-radar choice, followed by Ryan Brasier, Matt Strahm and Hirokazu Sawamura.

  • While most everyone looks to Coors Field for hitters, don't overlook the Arizona Diamondbacks' right-handed contingent at home against Chicago Cubs southpaw Justin Steele. Switch-hitter and on-base machine Cooper Hummel has been leading off in this scenario, with Jordan Luplow in the 2-hole and Christian Walker cleaning up. All are available in more than 95% of ESPN leagues.



Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday


Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.


THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday


Prop of the Day

Daniel Lynch strikeouts: Over/Under 3.5 (-148/+116)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Lynch putting up 3.1 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.6% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $24.07.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

  • Dry weather has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 23%.

  • Lynch has been unlucky with his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting a 7.77 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 8.48 -- a 0.71 K/9 disparity.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

  • THE BAT X projects Lynch to throw 76 pitches in this matchup (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Coors Field is the top park in MLB for suppressing strikeouts.

  • The Rockies have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Lynch today, which is especially troublesome given his huge platoon split.

  • Lynch will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.