Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Saturday

Giannis Antetokounmpo looks to continue his torrid statistical stretch on Saturday against the Heat. Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Feb. 4 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Saturday's games

Michael Jordan Day quickly became Kyrie Irving Trade Request Day, as Friday's news cycle was taken over by Adrian Wojnarowski's report that the Brooklyn Nets All-Star wants to be dealt to a new destination by Thursday afternoon's deadline. The fantasy implications of a potential Irving trade will develop when a deal does, while André Snellings speculates on how such a move could spur growth from Brooklyn's young talent.

Looking to Saturday's slate, it's heavily influenced by who isn't playing, with the Dallas Mavericks' Luka Doncic and Nets' Kevin Durant sidelined by injuries. My fairly simple statistical model adores Nic Claxton's potential against the Washington Wizards today, projecting him for roughly 44 DraftKings points, making him one of the key building blocks of the day. Even Royce O'Neale and Seth Curry are set to shine with increased opportunities.

For Dallas, Spencer Dinwiddie is set to go off against the Golden State Warriors, with a median projection hovering around 50 DraftKings points. Dorian Finney-Smith, the subject of recent trade rumors, is a free agent in nearly 90% of ESPN leagues despite being projected for nearly 40 minutes of run along with strong scoring and rebounding rates. Our crew of analysts canvass the entire nine-game schedule below.

With trade rumors bound to become actual deals and so many rotations and roles set to shift in the coming week, active and engaged fantasy managers will have a distinct advantage over the competition. -- Jim McCormick

Breaking down Saturday's slate

Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets
6:00 p.m ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 24-27 (24-26-1)
Nets: 31-20 (26-25-0)

Line: Nets (-3)
BPI Projection: Nets: 119.2-114.8
Money Line: Wizards (+122), Nets (-145)
BPI Projected winner: Nets (65.7%)
Total: 229 BPI Projected Total: 234

Injury Report:
Wizards: Anthony Gill, (GTD - General Soreness)
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD - Knee); T.J. Warren, (GTD - Lower Leg); Kevin Durant, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
6:00 p.m ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 25-28 (24-27-2)
Pelicans: 26-27 (24-28-1)

Line: Pelicans (-1)
BPI Projection: Pelicans: 119.5-117
Money Line: Lakers (+105), Pelicans (-125)
BPI Projected winner: Pelicans (59%)
Total: 234 BPI Projected Total: 236.5

Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Foot); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Austin Reaves, (OUT - Hamstring)
Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, (OUT - Ankle); Zion Williamson, (OUT - Hamstring); E.J. Liddell, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons
7:00 p.m ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 28-26 (29-25-0)
Pistons: 14-39 (24-28-1)

Line: Suns (-5)
BPI Projection: Suns: 119.5-116.8
Money Line: Suns (-195), Pistons (+162)
BPI Projected winner: Suns (58.9%)
Total: 226 BPI Projected Total: 236.1

Injury Report:
Suns: Cameron Johnson, (GTD - Knee); Devin Booker, (OUT - Groin); Cameron Payne, (OUT - Foot); Jae Crowder, (OUT - Not Injury Related); Landry Shamet, (OUT - Foot)
Pistons: Cory Joseph, (GTD - Back); Marvin Bagley III, (OUT - Hand); Cade Cunningham, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Jalen Duren (rostered in 25.1% of ESPN leagues) is surprisingly still available in a high percentage of leagues. In five of his past six games, he has scored 30 or more fantasy points, including two over 40 points. Duren provides fantasy managers in category formats with points, rebounds and blocks. Look no further if you need a streamer. -- Eric Moody

Trend: The Suns are in Motown for their lone matchup in Detroit this season. Both the Pistons and Suns played last night. So far, the Suns have lost the second leg of road back-to-backs each time this season. The average final total in those games has been 231, suggesting there's potential for this game to go over in a contest of two potentially tired teams. -- Jim McCormick

LA Clippers at New York Knicks
7:00 p.m ET, Madison Square Garden, Manhatten, NY

Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 29-26 (28-27-0)
Knicks: 28-25 (27-25-1)

Line: Clippers (-3.5)
BPI Projection: Clippers: 119.3-114.2
Money Line: Clippers (-165), Knicks (+140)
BPI Projected winner: Clippers (63.9%)
Total: 219 BPI Projected Total: 232.2

Injury Report:
Clippers: John Wall, (OUT - Abdomen)
Knicks: Jalen Brunson, (GTD - Illness); Ryan Arcidiacono, (GTD - Illness); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Thumb)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Isaiah Hartenstein (rostered in 5.5% of ESPN leagues) has played well lately, surpassing 24 fantasy points in three consecutive games. He's still splitting minutes with Jericho Sims, but Hartenstein has an opportunity to shine against his former team on Saturday night. This season, Hartenstein has averaged 12.0 points and 11.8 rebounds per game when playing 30 or more minutes. -- Moody

Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls
8:00 p.m ET, United Center, Chicago, IL

Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 26-26 (27-24-1)
Bulls: 24-27 (28-23-0)

Line: Bulls (-4.5)
BPI Projection: Bulls: 123.7-122.2
Money Line: Blazers (+158), Bulls (-190)
BPI Projected winner: Bulls (55.1%)
Total: 234.5 BPI Projected Total: 245.9

Injury Report:
Blazers: Gary Payton II, (GTD - Illness); Justise Winslow, (OUT - Ankle); Jusuf Nurkic, (OUT - Calf)
Bulls: Alex Caruso, (GTD - Foot); Nikola Vucevic, (GTD - Quadriceps); Patrick Williams, (GTD - Ankle); Javonte Green, (OUT - Knee); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Trendon Watford (rostered in 0.5% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Jusuf Nurkic out due to a calf injury. Drew Eubanks (4.3%) also benefits from Nurkic's absence, but I prefer Watford, who averages 13.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. -- Moody

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
8:00 p.m ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 29-24 (20-30-3)
Bucks: 35-17 (27-22-3)

Line: Bucks (-5)
BPI Projection: Bucks: 123.7-111.6
Money Line: Heat (+175), Bucks (-210)
BPI Projected winner: Bucks (64.7%)
Total: 223 BPI Projected Total: 227.3

Injury Report:
Heat: Gabe Vincent, (GTD - Ankle); Victor Oladipo, (GTD - Ankle); Duncan Robinson, (OUT - Finger); Kyle Lowry, (OUT - Knee); Nikola Jovic, (OUT - Back); Omer Yurtseven, (OUT - Ankle); Orlando Robinson, (OUT - Thumb)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Knee); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD - Knee); Bobby Portis, (OUT - Knee); Serge Ibaka, (OUT - Personal)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best Bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 51.5 points+assists+rebounds. It would be shocking if the Bucks allowed the Heat to beat them at home, as Miami is currently the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. In his past six games, Antetokounmpo has averaged 40.2 points, 4.0 assists, and 14.7 rebounds. -- Moody

Trend: The Bucks are on a roll. Winners of six straight since Khris Middleton returned to the rotation, Milwaukee has averaged 127 points during this stretch, with Giannis Antetokounmpo somehow averaging roughly 40 points and 15 boards during this run. The Bucks haven't had Antetokounmpo in the lineup against the Heat yet this season, making this spread appear achievable for the home team. -- McCormick

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:00 p.m ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 13-39 (20-29-3)
Thunder: 24-27 (32-19-0)

Line: Thunder (-10)
BPI Projection: Thunder: 122.9-113.3
Money Line: Rockets (+360), Thunder (-480)
BPI Projected winner: Thunder (80.6%)
Total: 231.5 BPI Projected Total: 236.2

Injury Report:
Rockets: Eric Gordon, (GTD - Rest); Jae'Sean Tate, (GTD - Rest); Jalen Green, (GTD - Calf); Kevin Porter Jr., (OUT - Foot)
Thunder: Luguentz Dort, (OUT - Hamstring); Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT - Lower Leg); Chet Holmgren, (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kenyon Martin Jr. (rostered in 13.5% of ESPN leagues) is firmly on the streaming radar for a shorthanded Rockets team. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in five straight games. Three of them have seen Martin Jr. log at least 30 minutes. -- Moody

Best Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 42.5 points+assists+rebounds. The Rockets have been a defensive abomination all season, ranking 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Houston also allows opponents an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. In his past 14 games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.6 points, 5.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds. Additionally, the Rockets have given up the most assists and points to point guards this season. -- Moody

Trend: The Rockets and Thunder are meeting for the second time this week, this time in Oklahoma City. While the Thunder struggled mightily from the floor in Wednesday's loss in Houston, they are among the league's better home shooting teams, sporting the league's best 3-point efficiency at home in 2023. Even though recent precedent doesn't align, the Thunder are in a good spot to cover. -- McCormick

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 28-25 (17-33-3)
Warriors: 26-26 (24-27-1)

Line: Warriors (-10)
BPI Projection: Warriors: 122.9-110.7
Money Line: Mavericks (+360), Warriors (-480)
BPI Projected winner: Warriors (76.5%)
Total: 226 BPI Projected Total: 229.2

Injury Report:
Mavericks: Spencer Dinwiddie, (GTD - Knee); Christian Wood, (OUT - Thumb); Davis Bertans, (OUT - Calf); Luka Doncic, (OUT - Heel); Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Hamstring)
Warriors: Draymond Green, (GTD - Calf); Klay Thompson, (GTD - Illness); Patrick Baldwin Jr., (GTD - Illness); Stephen Curry, (GTD - Lower Leg); Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Hip)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Josh Green (rostered in 0.5% of ESPN leagues) has been a valuable member of the Mavericks rotation and should be provided additional usage for a team that will be shorthanded on Saturday night. He's scored 22 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. -- Moody

Fantasy streamer: Dorian Finney-Smith (rostered in 10.1% of ESPN leagues) is yet another Mavericks streamer that fantasy managers should care about on Saturday night. Over his past six games, he has averaged 11.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.0 steals. The Mavericks will need multiple players to step up, since Luka Doncic's usage rate this season is 38.3%. -- Moody

Trend: In a rematch of last summer's Western Conference Finals, this Luka-less matchup could see the Mavericks, a team already ranked 29th in pace, intentionally slow the game down against the Warriors' superior offensive options. The Warriors' position as heavy home favorites already speaks to the potential for a blowout scenario, which also leans to going under. --McCormick

Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets
9:00 p.m ET, Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 27-26 (24-27-2)
Nuggets: 36-16 (27-24-1)

Line: Nuggets (-6)
BPI Projection: Nuggets: 121.4-119.2
Money Line: Hawks (+205), Nuggets (-250)
BPI Projected winner: Nuggets (58.1%)
Total: 234 BPI Projected Total: 240.6

Injury Report:
Hawks: None reported
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (GTD - Ankle); Nikola Jokic, (GTD - Hamstring); Jack White, (OUT - Thigh)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (rostered in 17.8% of ESPN leagues) has scored 30 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. He's also a viable option in category formats. Over his past seven games, Caldwell-Pope has averaged 11.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.6 steals. -- Moody