Alvin Kamara among players who will score fewer TDs in 2021

Can Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints maintain his historic touchdown pace? Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

As you get ready for fantasy football 2021, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby.

Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.