On the eve of the regular season, Aaron Judge was offered a seven year, $213.5 million contract from the New York Yankees. The consensus at the time was that he was worth a bit more than that, but that it was a fair offer with a hometown discount baked in. Judge, though, turned it down, opting to bet on himself -- and it has worked in a huge way.
In late May, during Judge's hot start to the season (.307/.381/.664 in 156 PA at that point), I wrote that his expectations should now be well north of the Yankees' preseason offer of $213.5 million, even getting lucky with a line about Judge potentially deserving around $300 million if he hit 60 home runs this year.
Judge has only gotten hotter, hitting .316/.439/.706 over 516 PA since May 21, posting the highest WAR since peak Barry Bonds from 2001 to 2004 and reaching the 61 home runs with a chance to break the American League record in the final week of the season.
If Judge's hot start has been followed by the best full season in almost two decades, how far north should his contract expectations be now? Is $300 million now the expectation?
We polled more than a dozen MLB executives, agents and insiders to find out.