The UAAP Season 82 Final Four picture is still far from complete as the league heads into the crucial stretch of the elimination round.
With only three playdates left, Ateneo is the lone safe team waiting for its would-be opponent. UP, FEU, UST, and La Salle are practically faced with must-win situations as they continue to battle for the last three semifinal slots.
Adamson, UE, and NU, on the other hand, may have bowed out of contention but all of them are capable of pulling off stunning upsets as they hope to end their season on a high note.
Here are the possible scenarios for each contender before the Final Four race gets even wilder and crazier in the next week.
Ateneo Blue Eagles
Current record: 12-0 (1st)
Best case: 14-0 (1st)
Worst case: 12-2 (1st)
Remaining games: NU (Saturday), UP (Wednesday)
Ateneo is the only team that knows exactly where it will land after the elimination round. The Blue Eagles already secured the top seed even before they notched their 12th win against UE, owing to UP's loss to UST last Wednesday.
Even if they lose one or both of their remaining games against NU and UP, they will still end up with the best record (12-2) because the other contenders already have at least four losses.
With their dominating performance so far, a 14-0 sweep is still highly possible for the defending champions. Should this happen, they will earn an outright Finals berth and force a stepladder format in the playoffs.
UP Fighting Maroons
Current record: 8-4 (2nd)
Best case: 10-4 (2nd)
Worst case: 8-6 (Battle for 4th)
Remaining games: La Salle (Sunday), Ateneo (Wednesday)
Among the remaining Final Four hopefuls, UP has the best chance to clinch the second seed and the twice-to-beat incentive that comes with it. The Fighting Maroons only need to notch one more win to do so.
However, they also have the toughest final assignments in La Salle and Ateneo. If they lose both, they are in danger of falling to multiple 8-6 ties. Should they get caught in any of these, they will always have an inferior quotient because all their wins had been dangerously close.
If a quadruple tie at 8-6 happens, UP will have to battle with La Salle for the fourth slot. In cases of triple ties at 8-6, UP will only figure in a battle for No. 2 (against FEU) if UST is out of the equation. If the tie is among UP/FEU/UST or UP/UST/DLSU, the Fighting Maroons will be relegated to the fourth spot while the other two fight for No. 2.
If only a double tie at 8-6 happens, the Fighting Maroons will still need to knock out either FEU, UST, or La Salle for the twice-to-beat bonus. Therefore, the only way that they end up safely in second place is if they add one more win to their current record.
FEU Tamaraws
Current record: 7-6 (3rd)
Best case: 8-6 (Battle for 2nd)
Worst case: 7-7 (5th)
Remaining games: UE (Sunday)
The Tamaraws absolutely need to win against UE if they want to keep their bid for the second seed alive. They also need UP to lose both its remaining games to forge a quadruple or triple tie at 8-6.
In all 8-6 ties that involve UP, FEU will take one of the spots in the knockout for No. 2 whether against the Tigers or the Fighting Maroons.
If UP takes care of even just one game, the Tamaraws' highest seed will be No. 3. They will always have the best quotient (in cases of ties for 3rd/4th/5th) because they demolished La Salle in both rounds and they bounced back with a double-digit margin against UST after losing in the first round.
If FEU loses to UE (7-7) and the Tigers or the Green Archers went on to win their last games (8-6), the Tamaraws can either lock the No. 4 slot (if La Salle drops to 6-8) or fight for the last semis berth (double tie for 7-7).
However, if both UST and La Salle end up at 8-6, FEU's 7-7 will not be enough to advance to the next stage.
UST Growling Tigers
Current record: 7-6 (4th)
Best case: 8-6 (Battle for 2nd)
Worst case: 7-7 (5th)
Remaining games: Adamson (Saturday)
Just like FEU, the Tigers also need to win their last game against Adamson and hope that UP closes out with a pair of losses to stay in the hunt for the coveted twice-to-beat bonus.
In all 8-6 ties that involve UP, UST will be battling for the second seed either against FEU or La Salle.
However, in cases of ties without UP in the equation (triple at 8-6/7-7 or double at 7-7), the Tigers will be relegated to a knockout match for fourth place. They will only be assured of a slot if they end up with a better record (8-6) than either or both the Tamaraws (7-7) and Green Archers (7-7 or 6-8).
If they lose to Adamson (7-7) and FEU and DLSU both improve to 8-6, they will miss out on the playoffs altogether.
UST will have the earliest break among all teams. After facing the Falcons on Saturday, all the Tigers can do is wait for the other contenders to finish their remaining games to know if their season will be extended.
De La Salle Green Archers
Current record: 6-6 (5th)
Best case: 8-6 (Battle for 2nd)
Worst case: 6-8 (5th)
Remaining games: UP (Sunday), Adamson (Wednesday)
The Green Archers' win against the Tigers last Wednesday proved to be very critical as this allowed them to be in the thick of things, preventing UP and UST from gaining free passes in the Final Four.
Now they still have a very slim chance of forcing a knockout for the second seed, but they need all these things to happen: (1) sweep their remaining games against UP and Adamson; (2) UP to lose to Ateneo; (3) FEU or both UST/FEU to drop to 7-7. This will put them up against UP or UST for the twice-to-beat incentive.
In case of a quadruple tie at 8-6, they will be battling for the No. 4 slot against UP. In cases of triple ties for the 3rd/4th/5th places (either 8-6 or 7-7), they will be relegated to a knockout for No. 4 against UST due to their inferior quotient against FEU.
The Green Archers will drop to No. 5 if they lose both games or they finish at 7-7 while both the Tamaraws and Tigers move up to 8-6.
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Below is a summary of quotients in cases of multiple ties (quadruple or triple) using this formula: total points scored divided by total points against. Note that knockout matches will take place to break ties for 2nd/3rd and 4th/5th after taking quotients into consideration. Double ties were not included in this table.