Simmons, Ball or Fultz the favorite for 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year?

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton continue their running dialogue on rookies and draft prospects.

Ford: The Philadelphia 76ers announced Friday that No. 1 pick Ben Simmons will miss the remainder of the 2016-17 season -- meaning he'll have missed the entire season -- because his broken foot hasn't fully healed. While the news disappoints Sixers fans and others eager to see Simmons play, it should create a very interesting NBA Rookie of the Year race next season.

With several potential stars in a very deep 2017 NBA draft class, we could be looking at multiple candidates for Rookie of the Year in 2017-18.

Was Simmons on track to be the top rookie of 2016-17?

Ford: Let's start with Simmons.

In August, before his injury, I picked Simmons to be ROY. Not only did I think he was the best long-term prospect in the draft, I also thought he was the best short-term one, as well. And with Joel Embiid still a wild card as far as his health went, having missed two seasons with foot fractures, I thought Simmons was a clear favorite.

Kevin, I know you were an Embiid believer even in the preseason. Had he been healthy, where do you think Simmons would have ranked in this year's ROY race?

Pelton: Weird, but last summer neither of us mentioned Malcolm Brogdon? Given how disappointing the production of this year's rookie class has been, I think it probably would have been a two-man race between Embiid and Simmons if the latter were healthy. It would be hard for Simmons to match Embiid's productivity on a per-minute basis, but since Embiid has dealt with injuries of his own, that might have opened the door for Simmons to win the award.

Simmons vs. this year's top draft prospects

Ford: Assuming Simmons' foot will be 100 percent by the time of training camp in October, I'm curious how you think he stacks up against the top prospects in this year's draft class. While general managers have raved about the depth at the top of this draft (I've seen as many as seven players be mentioned as a potential No. 1 pick and as many as 12 players' names as potential All-Stars), there has been some skepticism about whether there is a franchise-changing player in this draft -- a true superstar.

Many scouts and GMs felt Simmons was that type of player. Who would you put as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year next season? Is it Simmons? Markelle Fultz? Lonzo Ball? Someone else?

Pelton: I think I'm sticking Simmons, for now. As I've noted in the past, Rookie of the Year voting tends to be predicted well by the leaderboard in combined points, rebounds and assists per game.

Back when we figured Simmons was going to play this season, I projected him to average 13.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists per 36 minutes. (The last figure is awfully conservative.)

Early projections now, without accounting for team context, show Fultz at 12.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists per 36 minutes next season -- similar production to Brogdon this season -- and Ball at 9.9, 4.3 and 6.5. So unless Simmons' playing time is severely limited by injury, which is a possibility, either he'll have to underperform his projections or one of this year's rookies will have to outperform projections.

Do you think playing alongside Embiid might limit Simmons' production as a rookie?

Ford: Perhaps. I also think the Sixers will be in line for a high lottery pick in this draft. Simmons won't be the only high-level rookie on the floor. And I assume whoever the Sixers take will likely be a shooter/scorer in the mold of either Fultz or someone like Kentucky's Malik Monk.

As we saw at LSU, Simmons can be unselfish to a fault. So it wouldn't surprise me to see his points per game dip with Embiid and Philly's other lottery pick on the floor, while his assists per game increase. Simmons also will have some rust on him from missing a year of play. That rust certainly didn't inhibit Embiid, but typically we see a slower curve.

It's hard to predict a Rookie of the Year until we know what team the top rookies will play for and how they'll be used. But my gut right now leans toward Ball. I think he brings many of the same attributes that Simmons does to the table, but his shooting ability and aggressiveness surpass that of Simmons.

Unless he's drafted by a team that won't let him play the way he needs to play (I'm praying he lands on the Los Angeles Lakers and Luke Walton gives him the Stephen Curry playbook), Ball would get my vote.

Closer look at Fultz, Ball and Isaac

Ford: Those Fultz and Ball projections surprise me a little. Are GMs overhyping this draft? Or is it just accurate to say there's a lot of talent but no real superstars in the draft.

Pelton: I would say yes and no. Though he has solidified himself as the likely No. 1 pick, Fultz's statistical production at Washington hasn't quite matched up to what Simmons did last season at LSU. I think the hype's gotten a little heavy there. But Ball rates better than either Fultz or Simmons in my stats-only projections and Sports-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric. Ball and Florida State forward Jonathan Isaac have the two best BPM scores since Karl-Anthony Towns in 2014-15.

Can we talk quickly about this Stephen Curry comparison, which was driven recently by Lonzo's dad, Lavar?

I don't particularly think it helps Lonzo to compare him to someone who scores so frequently. Aside from deep 3-point range, he doesn't play all that much like Curry -- which is fine. His pass-first style is perfectly successful in its own right and has resulted in the NCAA's second-best offense at UCLA this season.

What do you think?

Ford: Agreed. I think it's the combination of highlight-reel passes and deep, deep jumpers that draws people to that conclusion. But that's where the comparisons end, and I don't think it's ever helpful to compare young players to NBA greats.

Before the Curry comp, Ball was "Jason Kidd with a jumper." That's another Basketball Hall of Famer. Same thing happened to Simmons. Remember the LeBron James comparisons? But look, that's reality too. It's not just media-driven. I hear the comparisons from scouts all the time and report them constantly.

In Ball's case, I especially think it's tempting, because you see his elite feel for the game (similar to Simmons'), and it just feels like he's going to something special. That's why incorporating analytics is so important. Feelings are just that: feelings.

It's interesting that BPM has Isaac at No. 2. He has been rising on our draft board of late, and it appears he might be able to move up one or two more spots with great workouts.

But Isaac is also rail thin, the same way Brandon Ingram is. And I think that's what makes predicting Rookie of the Year so hard. Just because a player is the best long-term prospect, that doesn't make him the best rookie. Players like Tyreke Evans and Michael Carter-Williams have won Rookie of the Year honors because they were more NBA-ready. But they were projected in the draft to have relatively low ceilings, and that turned out to be accurate.

Are NBA readiness and the ROY award overrated?

Ford: I think NBA readiness is pretty overrated. It's what helped the New Orleans Pelicans justify taking Buddy Hield over Jamal Murray. And it's what convinced the Minnesota Timberwolves to take Kris Dunn so high.

Do you see anyone in this draft who might be overrated because teams are valuing his ability to immediately contribute? It's such a freshman-heavy draft, I'm not sure there is one this year.

Pelton: Yeah, I don't see that player, either. Perhaps the most NBA-ready role player, Villanova's Josh Hart, is stuck in the early second round of your mock drafts.

I find the 2013-14 rookie class, when Carter-Williams won Rookie of the Year, particularly instructive when it comes to short-term contributions versus long-term value. Few of those players contributed as rookies. Now, as they complete their rookie contracts, however, we have a budding superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo and another player who should have been an All-Star in Rudy Gobert. And there are plenty of quality starters, such as Steven Adams, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Otto Porter, all of whom have long surpassed Carter-Williams.

So, to bring this back to the starting point, should we really care who wins Rookie of the Year next season?

Ford: No, maybe we shouldn't. On the other hand, I'm surprised how often embattled GMs do care.

At the heart of the draft is finding the best long-term talent. But finding a player who makes a strong impression is also part of the draft. And if you draft the Rookie of the Year, you not only get a press conference and approval from the media and fans, you might get a contract extension.

Of course, not every franchise is run this way, and not every GM thinks this way. Many keep long-term goals squarely in sight. But too often, those same individuals lose their jobs before their vision is realized.

Patience is a hard commodity to sell to fan bases, sponsors, owners and players. If it were easy, the Boston Celtics might have convinced the Chicago Bulls or Indiana Pacers to give up Jimmy Butler or Paul George at the trade deadline for the projected No. 1 pick.