Nigeria's 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign is only one game old, but Tuesday's visit to Guinea-Bissau already feels like a decider for which of the two teams secures the sole ticket to next year's AFCON.
That is because it may well be. Both teams have three points in Group L, with Guinea-Bissau top of the group by a single goal on goal difference after their impressive 2-0 away win against Tanzania. Nigeria needed a comeback to beat Madagascar 2-1 in Uyo, with debutants George Ilenikhena and Moses Usor scoring after the visitors took a 16th-minute lead.
Ordinarily, that would leave plenty of room for recovery over the remaining five games, but Group L offers no such luxury.
Tanzania have already qualified for AFCON 2027 as co-hosts, which means only the highest-placed team among Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar will join them at the tournament. The same arrangement applies to Groups D and H, which contain fellow hosts Kenya and Uganda.
A Nigeria win in Bissau would therefore do more than move the Super Eagles top. It would leave them three points ahead of Guinea-Bissau after two matches and give Eric Chelle's team control of the race before qualifying resumes in November.
A draw would keep the teams level on points and leave Nigeria behind Guinea-Bissau on the current goal difference, although Madagascar's result against Tanzania could also affect the standings.
Does Chelle reward the new men?
Matchday one was headlined by the heroics of two debutants, George Ilhenikena and Moses Usor. Both got the goals to help the Super Eagles make a turnaround from 0-1 to 2-1 after Chelle went into the Madagascar game without injured forward Victor Osimhen.
Ilenikhena scored the equalizer in first-half stoppage time from Alex Iwobi's pass, and Usor iced the cake four minutes after coming on as a substitute for Samuel Chukwueze.
The other starters up front were Akor Adams and Ademola Lookman. Adams had four attempts without putting one on target, while Lookman looked lukewarm as he struggled to impose himself.
For the oldies, Moses Simon came on at the same time as Usor for Adams, while Tolu Arokodare replaced Lookman eight minutes later and struck the post five minutes after entering. Chelle had effectively changed much of his attacking configuration by the time Nigeria looked their most threatening.
All of this leaves the coach with an interesting decision to make in Bissau.
Ilenikhena, of course, has made a strong case to retain his place. Usor has made one to start. But Chelle has previously spoken about the difficulty of introducing inexperienced internationals too quickly, particularly into African football, where away qualifiers can present very different conditions.
Tuesday provides the other side of that argument. Chelle has two newcomers who have just delivered under pressure, and now he has to decide whether the risk of starting them in Bissau outweighs the potential rewards of taking advantage of what they produced in Uyo.
There is also the question of Lookman. Chelle said after the game that Madagascar's low block restricted the sort of spaces in which the Atletico Madrid forward normally operates.
"Once you are playing against a low block, you have to pass by the side, go to the left, go to the right, and after three or four times you can find a pass inside," Chelle said.
Although Guinea-Bissau may ask a different question, even if they do ask the same, it is hard to see a situation where the former African Player of the Year is not a starter.
Fix the midfield balance
For all of Nigeria's attacking pressure against Madagascar, there was a vulnerability in the way the midfield was constructed.
Chelle started with Wilfred Ndidi and Iwobi centrally, leaving both Frank Onyeka and Raphael Onyedika on the bench for the entire game in an attack-heavy formation. Ndidi, who was nominally the more defensive of the pair, regularly advanced into attacking positions - whether by design or adventure is unclear.
The numbers illustrate just how adventurous he became. By the 30th minute, Ndidi had already attempted three shots, including two headers from inside the penalty area. That was useful when Nigeria were trying to break down a compact opponent, but it also reduced the security behind the attack when possession changed hands, especially as the more offensive Iwobi was usually the most deep of the pair.
Even though Madagascar managed only four shots to Nigeria's 22 and had 45% possession, they still looked exceedingly dangerous in transition, and could have gone up 2-1 in the second half but for Stanley Nwabali's heroic goalkeeping
Chelle acknowledged afterwards that the overall performance had fallen below the technical level he wanted and changed the structure during the game.
An away game means that that front-loaded structure may need to be jettisoned, just like he did later in the game.
The Wild Dogs showed against Tanzania that they do not need to dominate possession to hurt an opponent. Tanzania had about 60% of the ball and attempted 20 shots to Guinea-Bissau's 10, but the visitors still won 2-0. That should make transition protection a significant consideration for Chelle.
Starting either Onyeka or Onyedika alongside Ndidi would give Nigeria another midfielder capable of protecting the centre and recovering possession, while potentially allowing Iwobi to operate higher up the field, where his passing usually does the most damage and certainly did against Madagascar, including the pass for Ilenikhena's equalizer.
But there is a tradeoff, of course. And that is most likely to be an attacking player. Chelle must decide whether that is a price worth paying away from home against an opponent that has already demonstrated its ability to win without controlling the ball. It is also a question of who gets dropped. Chukwueze may be the most likely.
Respect Guinea-Bissau's counterpunch
Nigeria know enough about Guinea-Bissau to understand this, especially in recent years.
They have met four times at senior level since 2022. Nigeria have won three, but Guinea-Bissau's one victory came in AFCON qualifying - a 1-0 win in Abuja in March 2023.
That goal was scored by Mama Baldé. He is still there, and he scored again against Tanzania on Friday. The 2023 game also offers a useful reminder of how Guinea-Bissau can approach stronger opposition. They had only 31% possession in Abuja, but protected their lead after Baldé scored and left Nigeria chasing the game.
To their credit, though, and in much happier context, Nigeria went to Bissau three days later and won 1-0 through a Moses Simon penalty. Nigeria also beat them 1-0 at the 2023 AFCON finals in Ivory Coast. Three of those four meetings between the countries have therefore been decided by one goal.
There is little in that history to suggest Tuesday will be comfortable. It is a warning to the Super Eagles that if they slip up, and allow the hosts to score, they could be in for a very long night, indeed.
And Friday's result in Tanzania showed that Guinea-Bissau remain comfortable playing without the majority of possession. Nigeria may see more of the ball in Bissau. What they need to watch out for is what happens when they turn the ball over.
No margin for error, but a draw is not the end of the road
This is the part of this qualification format that matters more than ever for the three-time African champions. Finishing second is not an option. That means any dropped points could prove considerably expensive, but perhaps not immediately.
Because of CAF's head-to-head rule, a draw in Guinea Bissau would not be the end with four games still to play. But only if the Super Eagles win at home in the return fixture, and claim the tie-breaker.
Still, it would leave Guinea-Bissau above Nigeria on points and preserve the pressure going into the November window.
A win, however, changes the complexion immediately. Six points from the opening two games would make Nigeria the clear leaders, three points clear of Guinea-Bissau, guarantee the Super Eagles the advantage over Tuesday's opponents regardless of the other Group L result and leave Chelle's team with control of the one qualifying place available to them.