Apparently for some people, going home is rather important.
LeBron James' return to Cleveland holds maximum importance for anyone who follows fantasy basketball. Take away the chest-puffing prognostications and the classy letter, and what you have left are the roster ramifications. LeBron leaving South Beach ignited a long chain reaction of player movement that has yet to burn itself out.
Going home means returning to an upgraded roster in terms of one valuable element ... upside. Thanks to its years in the post-LeBron, comic sans wilderness, the Cleveland Cavaliers -- even with draft misfires -- is stocked with top-5 lottery upside.
And if part of that upside is packaged and converted into Kevin Love? It means at least Decision 2.0 will have affected two dozen players' fantasy fortunes.
As of today, I count at least 20 impact NBA players who have seen their value shift due to Decision 2.0. That movement, coupled with a bumper crop of rookies (many going to situations where they're guaranteed heavy minutes) is brewing some serious fantasyland magnificence.
To writ: 2014-15 could be the most entertaining season we've ever experienced in fantasy basketball, thanks to high-level player moment, a top-level rookie class and a continuing shift in style of play toward 3-point-rich, fantasy-friendly spacing.
Look at the money that's been spent this summer on shooting. Not on players who just like to shoot, but players who are efficient from deep. Players who excel at that secret, weighty fantasy metric: true shooting percentage. Chandler Parsons. Channing Frye. Trevor Ariza.
This summer has been most kind for fantasy enthusiasts. Every few hours has formed a new undulation in value. These moves in worth can be based on statistical fact or hype-fueled perception. Both are valid in fantasy.
We can exploit perceived increases in value to create leverage.
Kevin Love to Cleveland would create a massive amount of breathless hype. His being part of a new LeBron-powered big three on a high-profile roster would likely mean Love's value would be overinflated. In reality, Love's fantasy value would drop precipitously alongside LeBron. Remember: no Big Three has ever seen their aggregate fantasy value increase in their first season together.
Then there are the players who should register actual increases in value. Some are on the radar and overhyped while others are flying way under the radar and could be had as a last-round flier.
Here's a quick snapshot of my fantasy winners to date. (Click here for fantasy losers this offseason.)
Chris Bosh, PF/C, Miami Heat: One weird by-product of some of the post-Decision 2.0 personnel shifts has been this weird schadenfreude surrounding Daryl Morey. In the span of about 24 hours, Houston lost out on Bosh and Chandler Parsons. Pat Riley made his thrilling play for Bosh (and a degree of relevance) and it worked. It happens.
It doesn't blunt the fact that for a few hours, Morey had assembled what could have been one of the great lineups in the history of fantasy basketball.
The secret about Chris Bosh is that he was one of the most underrated players in fantasy last season. Bosh clocked in at No. 20 on Player Rater in what most observers described as a "down year." His average draft position was a measly 45th. And no one seemed to notice.
Bosh's stealth magnificence was due to his evolution into what I call a 1+1+1 player; someone who averages a 3-pointer, a steal and a block per game. Bosh contributed the fewest amount of points per game (16.8) since his rookie campaign, but when he shot, he made it count. He converted a career-high 0.9 3-pointers per game, triple his previous career high.
That's a stunning development for a 30-year-old big man.
Without LeBron, Bosh's efficiency will drop. I'm sorry, but I don't see Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts creating the types of spacing and defense-free chasms that Mr. Ohio begets on a regular basis.
Where Bosh will gain this season is in volume. He will get a chance to be -- at worst -- the No. 1B option on offense. He is now the Heat's resident max superstar. Dwyane Wade is basically entering his Manu Ginobili phase. He has to be managed. Bosh becomes the Alpha Dog by default, and by contract.
Bosh has said he's not the same player he was in Toronto. He's better. Add the evolved skill set to an increase in touches, and you could have the makings of Bosh becoming a top-15 player.
Nerlens Noel, C, Philadelphia 76ers: As the only Washington Wizards fan I know, the 2013 draft will always be the Nerlens Noel draft. He was locked and loaded at the No. 3 pick, but the team instead drafted for perceived need with Otto Porter Jr. A perceived need that proved imaginary as Trevor Ariza in a contract year was penciled in at the three.
Porter has looked very solid this summer, but he'll forever be choking in the fumes of Nerlens Noel's upside.
Noel in 2014-15 has the makings of a Blake Griffin-type fantasy situation. An uber-athletic rookie misses his first season due to injury, rehabs well and then returns with an improved skill set and without the burden of post-draft expectations.
And in case you forgot, Nerlens Noel is a Philadelphia 76er. The franchise that puts the tiger in the word "tank." By drafting Joel Embiid, Philadelphia guaranteed Noel would be its lone impact rookie in 2014-15.
Do you remember whom the Sixers were running out at the five after dealing Spencer Hawes? I do: Henry Sims.
Noel is raw, and he direly needs a gym membership. Noel was getting shoved off the block in summer league. Both summer leagues. But he's in a perfect fantasy situation and should be drafted by any fantasy owner who wants to win the blocks battle on a regular basis.
Aside from playing in a zero-expectation situation, Noel will log heavy playing time because he's already a defensive force. If Noel can stay out of foul trouble, he has the potential to lead the NBA in blocks as a rookie. (As Kevin Pelton will remind you, blocks is one statistical category that tends to peak early in an NBA career.)
The larger question is whether or not Noel has glimmers of that Anthony Davis potential. I'm not claiming Noel will duplicate Davis. I'm just looking to see whether or not he possesses vestiges of real skill to couple with those crazy hops, enough to become more Davis than Larry Sanders.
Here's a positive sign: 19-for-27. That was how Noel fared at the free throw line in Orlando and Las Vegas. A 70-percent clip from a rookie big man is a highly positive development. Noel's offensive skill set is in a feral stage. One way he'll generate points early is by getting to the stripe.
Patrick Beverley, PG, Houston Rockets: Another by-product of post-Decision 2.0 was Houston's jettisoning Jeremy Lin to the Los Angeles Lakers to make room for Chris Bosh.
We know how that turned out. At least the stultifying timeshare at point guard in Houston was banished to roto history. As long as Beverley's knee holds up, he's in line to be the sole proprietor at floor general in the most fantasy-friendly offense in the NBA.
We know Beverley is tenacious, generates 3-pointers and gobbles steals. He also rebounds well for a guard (3.5 RPG in 2013-14). The question is whether he can increase his assist rate without Lin pushing him for playing time. Beverley only managed 2.7 assists per game last season, and that number will have to double if Beverley is to take the next step in his fantasy development.
Terrence Jones, PF, Houston Rockets: Jones was all over the statistical map last season, but he still progressed from his rookie campaign, managing to average 12.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 0.7 steals and 0.4 3-pointers. Jones has upside, and more importantly, did not lose his starting job to Chris Bosh.
Along with not getting Bosh, Houston also lost Omer Asik, which means Donatas Motiejunas won't have to siphon off as many minutes from Jones as he did in 2013-14. Daryl Morey still might have a move up his sleeve, but for now Jones' fantasy outlook is gaining momentum.
Markieff Morris, PF, Phoenix Suns: Channing Frye's decamping for the Eastern Conference just opened up an extra 25 minutes of front-court playing time that has yet to be filled by a free agent or rookie. I've been drooling over the Morris twins' statistical potential since they joined up in Phoenix. Markieff closed out strong and almost finished the season as a top-10 fantasy power forward in a stacked group.
Morris has that special 1+1+1 potential, and now he'll get expanded minutes to prove it.
Dion Waiters, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers: Here's a player who might lose something in the short-term while gaining long-term. Playing alongside LeBron James (and possibly Kevin Love) won't increase Waiters' touches, but it will allow him to develop alongside the best basketball player in the universe.
If he isn't traded, Waiters has a great chance to turn it around in Cleveland and develop some consistency. The athleticism is still there.
Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic: Here's your rookie most in line for a Damian Lillard/Michael Carter-Williams-type breakout. Without Jameer Nelson to kick him around for playing time, Payton should push Victor Oladipo back to SG and get the lion's share of minutes at point guard. Remember how heavy PG minutes boosted Oladipo's fantasy impact?
Payton has upside, natural point guard skills and should be watched very closely come training camp.
Luol Deng, SF, Miami Heat: I've read the phrase "Deng can't replace LeBron" myriad times over the past week.
The thing is, Deng is literally replacing LeBron. Not in terms of what he brings to the table, but in terms of being the starting small forward for the Heat.
Deng slumped last season due to a bum Achilles, but all the signs point toward a return to form in 2014-15. 17.0 points and 6.5 rebounds are a distinct possibility to go along with the improvements Deng has made from behind the arc over the past couple of campaigns.
Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings: In pure basketball enjoyment terms, I loved Collison as a Clipper. He has struggled in previous stints as a starting point guard, but Collison is being brought in to at least partially replace Isaiah Thomas' production, which spells big fantasy opportunities.
Is Isaiah Thomas better than Darren Collison? Yes. But the comparisons are irrelevant; Collison is (again) a starting NBA point guard, which should be all that matters in the 10th round of your upcoming draft.
Al Horford, C, Atlanta Hawks: Horford should be ready to go in time for training camp. He's been off the radar for a year and will go a round later than he should. He's a solid No. 1 fantasy center. That's enough to make him a winner in my book.
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets: See Horford, Al.
Raymond Felton, PG, Dallas Mavericks: I've written about the Maverick Effect in the past, the magical, restorative impact which results from playing alongside Dirk Nowitzki. The Maverick Effect boosted O.J. Mayo, Monta Ellis, Vince Carter, Jose Calderon and Tyson Chandler (maybe twice). Why not Felton?
Rodney Stuckey, SG, Indiana Pacers: I have always hated Stuckey as a fantasy contributor due to him being what I call an empty-points player. He blinds you to his statistical deficiencies with the odd scoring explosion. That being said, he is in line to replace Lance Stephenson in Indiana, and I'm interested to see how he benefits from the change in scenery.
Doug McDermott, SF, Chicago Bulls: The Bulls whiffed on Carmelo Anthony, which should free up enough time for McDermott to become a roster-worthy rookie sooner rather than later. The question with McDermott is whether or not he adds enough steals to his statistical tool kit to become more than another empty-points player.
Mirza Teletovic, PF, Brooklyn Nets: I love Teletovic as a deep sleeper this year. Paul Pierce decamped for a better situation in Washington(!). Kevin Garnett is a part-time player. Brook Lopez is returning to command defensive attention on the block. A stretch four like Teletovic should be able to excel under these shifting circumstances.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Milwaukee Bucks: We all love the Greek Freak because of his narrative: precious budding basketball genius with sci-fi worthy length and athleticism. I worry that the hype could lead to Antetokounmpo being overrated in fantasy drafts.
But the narrative just continues to build. he looked very polished running alongside Jabari Parker in Vegas. New coach Jason Kidd's star power adds to the hype. Barring an O.J. Mayo renaissance, all signs are pointing toward Antetokounmpo getting enough minutes to register a consistent fantasy impact in 2014-15.
Anthony Bennett, SF/PF, Cleveland Cavaliers: Disregard the Minnesota rumors for a beat, this summer, Bennett resembles the player we were expecting in 2013. Given confidence, health and steady minutes, he could still become a fantasy contributor.
Now, fade those Minnesota rumors back in. If Bennett goes to a rebuild in a structured zero-expectation environment, his fantasy potential goes way up. He'd go from a franchise scrambling to win a championship to a team that just swung a wrecking ball. It could be Philly-esque, and that's a good thing for fantasy.
Andrew Wiggins, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers: See most of what I just wrote about Bennett, Anthony.
Andrea Bargnani, PF, New York Knicks: I just have a feeling Phil Jackson's going to register a big net positive with Bargnani. Jackson has made a career out of managing players whose issues reside above the shoulder blades.
Once upon a time, Bargnani was an impact fantasy player, thanks to 3-pointers and blocks with a developing rebounding rate. That was back in 2010-11. That was just three years ago, and he is still only 28.