Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised ... if San Diego Padres OF/2B Fernando Tatis Jr. finishes outside the top-50 fantasy options
Everyone and their plumber confidently proclaim the accomplished Tatis, a second-round pick in most ESPN standard drafts, as a wise, no-doubt, buy-low option. This fellow, in his relative prime at 27, smacked 25 home runs last season, and his lowest home run output was 17 home runs during the truncated COVID-19 season of 2020, when he played only 59 games. Tatis entered this season slugging .513 over six seasons, with power, speed and Gold Glove defense. This is one of the best baseball players in the world! Trade for him, obviously!
Fair enough, but this isn't a two-week slump. Roughly one-third of this regular season is now complete and Tatis has neither homered nor shown any inclination that a change in mechanics or some power surge is pending. This isn't bad luck. He could be sitting on four or five home runs and this premise wouldn't change. Everyone still assumes everything will simply work out because this is Fernando Tatis Jr. and it has in the past. Still, shouldn't we at least consider the alternative?
Tatis still steals bases, and we thank the Padres for the added 2B eligibility. Yet, we sure didn't expect Tatis to statistically act like Jose Caballero (both have scored 80 fantasy points) or some 1970s middle infielder. Tatis is on pace to hit .255 with nary a home run, 48 RBIs, 57 runs and 38 stolen bases. Phil Garner hit .259 with five homers, 58 RBIs, 62 runs and 32 steals in 1980. Oh, my!
It's nice that Tatis is still hitting the baseball hard, but he isn't pulling baseballs to left field (still). His launch angle has bottomed out. Everything else seems clear, with fewer walks than last season, more strikeouts, many more ground balls and one of the lowest fly ball rates in the sport. This is Chandler Simpson/Justin Crawford type of stuff, and those guys do not try to hit home runs.
Entering Wednesday, 386 players have homered this season. A disgruntled Tatis investor in one of my leagues sends a semi-regular and sarcastic email chronicling those who recently registered their first home run. He's not pleased, nor should he be. He believes that as soon as he trades Tatis, the old Tatis returns.
Hmm. Tatis is going to elevate enough to hit a home run at some point, but let's not be so sure about everything turning out so great. It's nearly June. Tatis has been at the plate 227 times, but nothing is changing. It is quite clear -- for whatever reason -- he has drastically closed his batting stance and neither he, nor the Padres, have opened it back up.
Tatis can't catch up to four-seam fastballs, his percentage of weak contact is more than four times what it was in 2025 and, after posting an .845 OPS versus right-handed pitching last season, that mark is way down to .597 this season. Is he hiding an injury? Trying to prove something? This is weird, but we are well past early-season trends. Even the most optimistic among us must be concerned.
Ultimately, when everyone simply assumes player performance will alter, it sets myriad people up for disappointment. Yes, Tatis figures to improve his power numbers -- well, deliver some power, at least -- and we will all celebrate this first home run blast, but it will not mean he suddenly reverts to prior power rates, either. Everyone slumps. Two months of slumping is a different matter.
Even trading a presumed hitting "overachiever" for Tatis (Miguel Vargas, Christian Walker, Liam Hicks, for example), as if a top-50 points performance is assured is no longer the safe play. Yes, it may be painful and it sounds ridiculous, but at some point we must realize this may be the Tatis season we are getting.
Don't be surprised ... if San Francisco Giants surprise Casey Schmitt finishes among the top 10 hitters at four positions
Here we have Schmitt, 27, who was supposed to be the proverbial "odd man out" this season. The Giants filled their infield by signing Luis Arraez to play second base, joining Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman. Prospect Bryce Eldridge was expected to handle DH duties and that left Schmitt as an unreliable fantasy option guaranteed little playing time. Then again, this fellow hit only .237/.305/.401 last season. Schmitt was nowhere near looking like some emerging star, so even with valuable eligibility at three infield spots, few looked his way.
It feels incongruous to call Schmitt a star, but he is currently among the top 50 hitters in fantasy points this season and among the top 20 over the past 30 days. Casey Schmitt? Yep, Schmitt leads all Giants in fantasy points, too, although that is a far different bar. He hit 12 home runs in his 348 PA last season, but he is already at 12 blasts this season through just 192 PA. Plus, he is slugging .567, fifth best in all of baseball. Schmitt has one of the lowest walk rates in the game, but he makes contact, and he boasts one of the highest fly ball rates. Everyone would trade Schmitt for Tatis, of course. Should they?
What intrigues me about Schmitt, who must cool off at some point because it is difficult to post a .906 OPS for long while drawing walks at a 3.6% rate, is the defensive versatility. Some may not think it matters much, but players get hurt or slump all the time, and those in deeper formats than ESPN's standard do value being able to plug Schmitt into multiple spots. The Giants need Schmitt in the lineup, so now he is starting in left field, and he should add OF eligibility soon. If he keeps hitting, he may rank among the top 10 hitters at four defensive spots. This is unprecedented and, naturally, I can't get enough of this.
Schmitt has homered four times over the past week, knocking in 10 runs. He is hitting right-handed pitching and he is hitting in the tough home environment of Oracle Park. Schmitt is on pace for 35 home runs and 91 RBIs. His metrics show an extreme fly ball rate with few line drives and average exit velocity. Obviously, drawing less than one walk per week is far from ideal. Still, even if he slides a bit to end up hitting .275 with 25 home runs, that may be enough to get him into the top 10 at three separate infield spots and perhaps the outfield as well. Schmitt remains rostered in only 53.6% of ESPN standard leagues, but not for long.
Don't be surprised ... if Milwaukee Brewers LHP Kyle Harrison is a top 20 fantasy starting pitcher
The Brewers are doing it again. They led all of baseball with 97 wins last season, coaxing quality pitching performance from the likes of RHPs Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick, and journeyman LHP Jose Quintana. The financially responsible organization traded ace Freddy Peralta to the tragic New York Mets for prospects, and they remain near the leaders with a 3.19 team ERA. RHP Jacob Misiorowski is the breakout star, but Harrison boasts a lower ERA at 1.57. Harrison went 4-0 in May with a 0.96 ERA in five starts. He boasts multiple double-digit strikeout games this season. Nothing in his metrics tells us this is a fluke.
While empirical data for this narrative may be lacking, the fact is that the low-spending Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians always seem to unearth valuable and surprising pitching for fantasy managers to rely on. Harrison, long a Giants prospect, teased with becoming a legitimate breakout choice, but it didn't happen there, nor in his brief time with the Boston Red Sox (from the Devers trade). The Brewers gladly took Harrison (via the Caleb Durbin trade) and with a few tweaks (higher arm angle, more off-speed offerings), he is thriving. Why are we surprised?
Harrison isn't alone. Rays RHP Nick Martinez, 35, delivered a 4.45 ERA for last season's Cincinnati Reds. Today, in Tampa, he has a 1.51 ERA. He cannot sustain this with a dreadful strikeout rate, but a 3.44 FIP tells us it isn't all a fluke. Meanwhile, Guardians rookie LHP Parker Messick, a solid but not elite prospect, is 6-1 with a 2.24 ERA, leading his club in WAR. The Brewers, Rays and Guardians have been doing this for years, extracting the most from their pitchers. Fantasy managers should pay closer attention.