The top seven starting pitchers on Monday can all view their local Fourth of July fireworks while 12 of the bottom 14 will have to ask someone for the closest display following their road starts. Home cooking will come in handy since there's only one elite ace on the hill, meaning the rest of the strong starting options will get the 5 percent skills bump most pitchers enjoy at home. Let's kick off the first Monday of the second half with all the Daily Notes you need.
Pitching
Elite
It's too bad that his early start relegates Max Scherzer to just a handful of DFS contests, as the matchup doesn't get much juicier for the dominant righty. The visiting Brewers tote the highest strikeout rate on the road versus right-handers. Furthermore, with the fifth-lowest home run rate on the road against righties, the guests aren't set up to take advantage of Scherzer's penchant for allowing the long ball. It's worth setting the alarm early to get some exposure to Scherzer on DFS sites where he's available.
Solid
In full disclosure, Carlos Martinez originally landed in the elite tier with a projected game score of 61. While the St. Louis Cardinals' righty had a stellar first half, he just doesn't strike out enough hitters to be an ace for DFS tournaments. Plus, the opposing Pittsburgh Pirates sport an above average weighted on base average (wOBA) and below average strikeout rate versus righties. Martinez does check the all-important home field box and should get ample run support with Jonathon Niese taking the ball for the Bucs, so he's a solid cash game option. But the paucity of strikeouts dampens his GPP potential enough to override and drop him to the top of the elite.
Coming into the 2016 campaign, there were some questions as to whether Kyle Hendricks would maintain the strikeout spike he exhibited last season, and halfway through the year, the answer is yes. He has seen some good fortune on batted balls (especially for an extreme ground ball pitcher), which has resulted in a first-half ERA (2.76) much better than the mid-threes rate suggested by FIP and xFIP. Hendricks is a candidate for regression, though it may have to wait a little while as he's set up nicely with a Wrigley Field affair against the light-hitting Cincinnati Reds. The floor is there for cash play along with sufficient strikeout upside to be considered for GPP action.
Matt Harvey's last start was cut short by a rain delay, ending his streak of five consecutive outings lasting at least six innings. He did, however, extend his homerless games to six straight, which is especially relevant in light of increased power across the league. Look for Harvey to keep the momentum going in a positive direction in a home date with the Miami Marlins. The Fish don't offer much strikeout potential for opposing pitchers, so count Harvey among the options better suited for DFS cash play and not so viable for GPP deployment.
Don't fret, GPP enthusiasts, we have you covered too. Danny Salazar and the Cleveland Indians host the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Salazar's 10.3 K/9 is impressive and he has the platoon edge over the bulk of the visitors' best hitters. There's some risk, as the Tigers hit righties well, but Salazar is much better than an average right-handed starter. It's not an ideal setup, but relative to the other options, Salazar profiles as a top GPP candidate.
Sorry, we're back with another arm better suited for cash than GPP action, as Jerad Eickhoff and the Philadelphia Phillies entertain the Atlanta Braves. Eickhoff's first half had a couple of rocky patches, but he was solid overall. The Braves are one of the weaker-hitting clubs in the game, so look for the 26-year old righty to start the second half on a strong note.
If you are an Aaron Sanchez owner in seasonal leagues, the original thought may have been to deal him halfway through the season as the assumption was the Toronto Blue Jays would move their young righty to the bullpen to control his workload. However, there may be a change in plans as the Jays' brass is hinting the 24-year old may stick in the rotation all season, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Part of Sanchez's success is an above average 8.2 K/9 which puts him in the mix for both cash and GPP action, since the visiting Kansas City Royals have been whiffing considerably more lately, especially against righties on the road.
Streamers
A whopping 18 of Monday's 30 starters check in with a projected game score in the streaming range. However, many of them are far from safe as they will be taking the hill in enemy territory. Here are the better options but as always, even on the holiday, I'll monitor the comments and my Twitter @ToddZola for questions on pitchers that aren't covered.
Archie Bradley is owned in a scant 14 percent of ESPN leagues. That number should increase as many scramble to pick him up for his date with the San Diego Padres in the desert. Bradley has the stuff to be dominant, he just needs to be more efficient with his pitches so he can go longer into games. A 9.2 K/9 may be impressive but a 4.3 BB/9 tempers its effectiveness. That said, the Friars are in the bottom third of the league in terms of wOBA versus righties, fanning the fifth most in that scenario, rendering Bradley not only a strong streaming option but also in play for DFS tournaments.
Matt Moore has quietly strung together several solid outings, pitching at least six frames in six of his past seven efforts, striking out 41 while walking just 12 in 45 1/3 innings. Backed by the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field and facing the middling Los Angeles Angels, Moore's 19 percent ESPN ownership rate should surge.
If you're still hanging onto James Shields, you may as well find out if his recent stretch of mediocrity is for real when the New York Yankees visit the Windy City. The Chicago White Sox righty had much better command last time out, which really is all you can ask for at this stage of his career.
Rick Porcello is very much in play as the Texas Rangers visit Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox bats are getting warm again and should be able to continue heating up facing Nick Martinez, aiding in Porcello's bid for a win.
Both the visiting Tyler Anderson along with the home pitcher Jake Peavy are options as the San Francisco Giants welcome the Colorado Rockies to AT&T Park. Anderson is also a sneaky DFS play if his salary isn't too excessive.
Avoid
Wade Miley, Luis Perdomo, Cody Reed, Jonathan Niese and Edinson Volquez join Ricky Nolasco and Nick Martinez as pitchers too risky to roster.
Hitters
Fireworks should start early in Fenway Park with the flammable Nick Martinez taking the ball for the Rangers. Look for Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez to ignite the Red Sox attack.
Look for Wade Miley to get lit up by the explosive Houston Astros in Minute Maid Park. Right-handers George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis and Carlos Gomez are all in line to go off against the Seattle Mariners' incendiary southpaw.
Fueled by a 3.4 HR/9, Cody Reed is in danger of getting lit up by the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field. Granted, it's only 16 innings, but the Cincinnati Reds' rookie left-hander has surrendered six homers. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Addison Russell and Anthony Rizzo have the pop to blow that up even more.
Finally, look for the St. Louis Cardinals to send the lefty tosses of Jonathon Niese into orbit with Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, Jhonny Peralta and possibly Jedd Gyorko and Thomas Pham leading the charge.
Most likely to go yard: After a bit of a drought, David Ortiz is getting the power stroke back, so look for Big Papi to get the second half started off with a bang.
Most likely to steal a base: Odubel Herrera had a sparkling first half is in a good spot to turn on the jets and rocket around the base paths with rookie righty taking the hill.