It will be another heavy track in at Rosehill Gardens this weekend as the big Sydney wet continues in March. Scott Heinrich has done the form to help you find some winners with UBET.
Group I The BMW, Rosehill Race 6
German-bred Our Ivanhowe finally got conditions to suit in last week's Ranvet Stakes, revealing himself to be a top-class mudlark.
The BMW now revolves around him. Connections had Our Ivanhowe good to go first-up; the challenge now is to have him peaking again on the seven-day back-up.
That, of course, is an imponderable, though the Ranvet-BMW double is not exactly a rare bird. What isn't in question is the going. Sydney's never-ending deluge means Rosehill will be heavy again, and likely at the 9-10 range. So, all things considered, Our Ivanhowe is the one to beat.
The race isn't devoid of gallopers capable of beating him, however - the question is can they do it on a bottomless track.
Jameka is bursting to win another race, having been good all prep and emerging from an Australian Cup she should have won. She's one-from-one on heavy and is a winner on soft, so the ground is unlikely to be a concern. Whether she'll relish it to the extent Our Ivanhowe will is another matter, and I have a slight concern she's better racing left-handed, but all the same she is all class and must be respected.
Humidor beat Jameka at Flemington but off a kinder run, and, although he's OK in the wet, the 2400m must be a concern.
Giving Tavago a hope now that he's back in form, and remember he trounced Jameka in last year's Australian Derby on a wet track.
Recommended bet: Sticking with Jameka @ $4.40 with UBET, but keen to play her, Our Ivanhowe and Tavago in a boxed exacta.
Group I Vinery Stud Stakes, Rosehill Race 7
Most of these are headed towards the Australian Oaks, and with another heavy track on Saturday it will pay to focus on the fillies who are wanting a staying trip.
The marketplace is keen on the two Chris Waller entries, Foxplay and Dawn Wall, and with good reason.
Both have been in excellent form this prep, Foxplay beating the boys in the Phar Lap Stakes last time and Dawn Wall notching three straight wins with victory in the Kembla Grange Classic.
Although Foxplay was strong at the end of 1500m last time, I'm not sure she'll relish the rise to 2000m (at least in testing conditions). Dawn Wall is talented but would need to be exceptional to win a Group I at her first try on heavy, her first go at the trip, and in her first prep.
So at the price I'm willing to look elsewhere, and the two I want to focus on are La Bella Diosa and Harlow Gold.
The former sluiced through the mud to win the Surround Stakes at her first Aussie start and must be forgiven her failure in the Coolmore Classic, when post-race issues were noted by the stewards. Bred to want this trip and must go in as a live chance.
But I marginally prefer Harlow Gold, who has returned in great order and ran exceptionally well when a hard-closing fourth in Hey Doc's Australian Guineas.
That alone is good enough form to give her a fine chance in this, but as a Crown Oaks runner-up and winner on soft ground she ticks pretty much all the boxes. Looks good value for the red-hot Hayes and Dabernig team.
Recommended bet: Harlow Gold to win @ $5.50 with UBET, but have a saver on La Bella Diosa @ $4.80.
Best Bet
Rosehill Race 2, No.4 Jungle Edge @ $5 with UBET
If this gelding wasn't trained by Mick Bell and ridden by Kevin Forrester (no disrespect, gents), he would be half the price presently being offered.
Brings arguably the best form into the race, having spanked some very good sprinters when a close third to Russian Revolution in last week's Galaxy.
But the clincher for Jungle Edge is his predilection for heavy ground. Most others in this race - in fact, all bar the out-of-form Wouldn't It Be Nice - are question marks on bottomless tracks.
Should be at peak fitness third-up and can see him leading throughout. Quite astounded at the price. Should be a clear favourite - and would be if the jockey wore blue or if his trainer's surname started with a 'W.
Over The Odds
Rosehill Race 4, No.3 Kenjorwood @ $8 with UBET
Think this tough-as-teak handicapper has a fabulous each-way chance in what looks a fairly shallow Doncaster Prelude.
Is ticking along nicely this campaign, his second-up fourth behind Hellova Street a huge effort for an on-pace runner who had to be ridden upside down from a wide gate.
Yet to miss a place on heavy tracks and is used to humping big weights, so won't know himself carrying just 56kg. Is a winner in Sydney, too, so racing clockwise is not an issue for this Victorian galloper.
Can see Kenjorwood sitting outside the leader, or even leading himself, and proving hard to run down in the straight.
Mornington Race 7, No.7 Big Memory @ $14 with UBET
Broke a painfully long run of outs last start when 'doing a Big Memory' on Cadillac Mountain and winning by a nose. If I had a dollar for every time Big Memory has been beaten a lip since winning the 2014 Herbert Power, I'd have $4.
Not about to suggest a picket fence is coming now the drought is broken, but can't figure out why this one is so long given his recent form and history in the Mornington Cup.
Has run second in the past two editions of this race - definitely should have won in 2015 and was stiff again last year - and there's no doubt 2400m is his best distance.
Meets Cadillac Mountain and Settler's Stone appreciably worse at the weights from that Flemington win, and this race is tougher again, but $14 looks overs for an in-form horse who likes the track and trip and will give a great sight on the speed. Each-way.
Lay Of The Day
Rosehill Race 5, No.1 Prized Icon @ $3.60 with UBET
Quality staying colt but there's a time and a place for everything - and Prized Icon on a bog track is not that time and place.
Really struggled on that Heavy 10 in the Rosehill Guineas, so surprised connections are fronting up again on a similar surface.
What's more surprising is the price - it's hard to win a Tulloch Stakes, any race, on a heavy track if you don't like heavy tracks.
Under The Odds
Rosehill Race 3, No.3 Astronomos @ $2.60 with UBET
A noted mudlark who is racing well so can see why punters are keen on this one, but think there's more to this race than meets the eye.
Did make a mess of his rivals on a Heavy 10 at Randwick last start, but that was quite a weak race and Astronomos now rises in weight and class.
Small field on Saturday but can make a case for several of these: Assign is a classy stayer, Classic Uniform likes it wet, I'm very wary of the imported Floodlight and the two mares at the bottom, Ambience and Zasorceress, could win without surprising.
Astronomos is certainly in the mix, but he's no value at all and I'd rather play others.
Multi of the weekend
Mornington Race 4, No.2 Toga Picta - PLACE @ $1.39
Mornington Race 9, No.3 Moss 'N' Dale - PLACE @ $1.75
Rosehill Race 2, No.4 Jungle Edge - PLACE @ $1.85
Rosehill Race 4, No.3 Kenjorwood - PLACE @ $2.55
Rosehill Race 7, No.3 Harlow Gold - PLACE @ $1.95
Morphettville Race 9, No.3 Silvera - PLACE @ $2.25