We're just four weeks into this fascinating 26-round competition, but alarm bells are already ringing for Trent Robinson and his Sydney Roosters. For the first time in a decade the Roosters have opened a season with four consecutive losses and what's more concerning is I don't see them turning that around anytime soon.
The loss of support runners Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and James Maloney at the end of 2015 was significant, and their departure has had a profound impact on the Roosters given the team's current inability to score.
It's also clear their experienced players are struggling for form in the early part of 2016. Aiden Guerra is playing poorly and I'm not convinced his performance last week at five-eighth suggests the Roosters should look to continue the experiment on a more permanent basis.
The Roosters need to compose themselves now and get over their first month of football. If they can start playing a short passing game, they're more than capable of beating sides and getting some much-needed points on the board.
While I'm intrigued to see how the Roosters approach their match against the Warriors, I also have my eye keenly focused on South Sydney.
The Rabbitohs were deplorable last week, going down by 30 points to the Bulldogs in what was one of the club's worst performances at home in recent times. But they are a powerhouse side with talent all over the park and I can guarantee those playing in last week's loss will want to make a statement and restore some pride. This week I'm expecting the Rabbitohs to take their physicality up a notch against a Manly side that will be without Daly Cherry-Evans.
Did you know? The Sea Eagles have only won two of their past six matches at Brookvale Oval.
Sam Burgess helps the Rabbitohs immensely and his presence on the field is felt enormously by his teammates. If he can overcome the neck injury he suffered a fortnight ago to play, he will be the difference in this tight contest and give Souths an edge.
Round five is also a telling week for the Sharks and the Bulldogs.
Both sides have shown glimpses of stunning football early in 2016 but inconsistency is holding them back. Yes, the Bulldogs are our ladder leaders but just one loss could see them tumble to the bottom of the eight. Too often do they switch off for periods within matches and it's a habit they'll need to address sooner rather than later.
The Sharks have been rock solid in defence and played very well against Melbourne last week. There's a lot of positives going for Cronulla, and with a Paul Gallen return on the cards for round five they must start stringing some wins together if they are intent on being a serious premiership threat.
Did you know? Only once in the past seven years have the Sharks won three of their opening five games in a season.
Thursday, March 31
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.05) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.77), Brookvale Oval at 8:05pm AEST.
Sea Eagles: 1. Brett Stewart, 2. Jorge Taufua, 3. Jamie Lyon, 4. Steve Matai, 5. Tom Trbojevic, 6. Dylan Walker, 7. Apisai Koroisau, 8. Nate Myles, 9. Matt Parcell, 10. Brenton Lawrence, 11. Martin Taupau, 12. Felati Mateo, 13. Jake Trbojevic. Interchange: 14. Lewis Brown, 15. Josh Starling, 16. Darcy Lussick, 17. Siosaia Vave, 18. Blake Leary, 21. Luke Burgess
Rabbitohs: 1. Greg Inglis, 2. Kirisome Auva'a, 3. Bryson Goodwin, 4. Hymel Hunt, 5. Aaron Gray, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Luke Keary, 8. George Burgess, 9. Cameron McInnes, 10. Sam Burgess, 11. Chris Grevsmuhl, 12. Kyle Turner, 13. Nathan Brown. Interchange: 14. Damien Cook, 15. Jason Clark, 16. David Tyrrell, 17. Thomas Burgess, 18. Paul Carter, 19. Michael Oldfield
UBET verdict: Manly probably lose Cherry-Evans and Buhrer, and Souths gain Sam Burgess. That's enough to swing the pendulum in favour of Souths and the early money has all been for them.
Enter your ESPNfootytips NRL selections
Friday, April 1
Gold Coast Titans ($4.00) v Brisbane Broncos ($1.25), Cbus Super Stadium at 8:05pm AEST.
Titans: 1. David Mead, 2. Anthony Don, 3. Josh Hoffman, 4. John Olive, 5. Nene Macdonald, 6. Tyrone Roberts, 7. Ashley Taylor, 8. David Shillington, 9. Nathan Friend, 10. Ryan James, 11. Zeb Taia, 12. Chris McQueen, 13. Greg Bird. Interchange: 14. Luke Douglas, 15. Agnatius Paasi, 16. Leivaha Pulu, 17. Daniel Mortimer, 18. Eddy Pettybourne, 19. Cameron Cullen, 20. Kierran Moseley
Broncos: 1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Jack Reed, 4. James Roberts, 5. Jordan Kahu, 6. Anthony Milford, 7. Ben Hunt, 8. Josh McGuire, 9. Andrew McCullough, 10. Adam Blair, 11. Alex Glenn, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Corey Parker. Interchange: 14. Jarrod Wallace, 15. Sam Thaiday, 16. Jo Ofahengaue, 17. Kodi Nikorima
UBET verdict: Brisbane have won 5 of 7 at Robina, and while they are the fav's to win the title, the new look Titan's side simply don't give up. Brisbane popular at the short quote but money for the Titans with the handicap start.
Saturday, April 2
Melbourne Storm ($1.12) v Newcastle Knights ($6.35), AAMI Park at 3:00pm AEST.
Storm: 1. Cameron Munster, 2. Young Tonumaipea, 3. Will Chambers, 4. Ben Hampton, 5. Marika Koroibete, 6. Blake Green, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Jesse Bromwich, 9. Cameron Smith, 10. Jordan McLean, 11. Kevin Proctor, 12. Tohu Harris, 13. Dale Finucane. Interchange: 14. Kenneth Bromwich, 15. Tim Glasby, 16. Felise Kaufusi, 17. Christian Welch Nichol
Knights: 1. Dane Gagai, 2. Nathan Ross, 3. Sione Mata'utia, 4. Pat Mata'utia, 5. Cory Denniss, 6. Jarrod Mullen, 7. Trent Hodkinson, 8. Sam Mataora, 9. Tyler Randell, 10. Korbin Sims, 11. Jacob Saifiti, 12. Robbie Rochow, 13. Jeremy Smith. Interchange: 14. Danny Levi, 15. Mickey Paea, 16. Lachlan Fitzgibbon, 17. Pauli Pauli
UBET verdict: The Storm disappointed against Cronulla but are expected ($1.12) to dish out a spanking to the Knights ($6.35). The sides who back up after playing Cronulla don't have a good record but the Knights were so poor in the 2nd half against the Warriors, it is hard to put up a case for them here.
Enter your ESPNfootytips NRL selections
Wests Tigers ($2.25) v Cronulla Sharks ($1.65), Campbelltown Stadium at 5:30pm AEST.
Tigers: 1. James Tedesco, 2. David Nofoaluma, 3. Tim Simona, 4. Kevin Naiqama, 5. Jordan Rankin, 6. Mitchell Moses, 7. Luke Brooks, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. Tim Grant, 11. Chris Lawrence, 12. Dene Halatau, 13. Sauaso Sue. Interchange: 14. Ava Seumanufagai, 15. Kyle Lovett, 16. Josh Aloiai, 17. Manaia Cherrington, 18. Jack Buchanan
Sharks: 1. Ben Barba, 2. Sosaia Feki, 3. Jack Bird, 4. Ricky Leutele, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. James Maloney, 7. Chad Townsend, 8. Andrew Fifita, 9. Michael Ennis, 10. Sam Tagataese, 11. Luke Lewis, 12. Wade Graham, 13. Paul Gallen. Interchange: 14. Jayson Bukuya, 15. Chris Heighington, 16. Matt Prior, 17. Joseph Paulo
UBET verdict: The Sharks have only won 4 of the last 18 against the Tigers, but they look the real deal this season. Having said that, the early money is for the Tigers at $2.25 to spring a small upset.
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.22) v St George Illawarra Dragons ($4.35), 1300SMILES Stadium at 7:30pm AEST.
Cowboys: 1. Lachlan Coote, 2. Kyle Feldt, 3. Justin O'Neill, 4. Javid Bowen, 5. Antonio Winterstein, 6. Michael Morgan, 7. Johnathan Thurston, 8. Matthew Scott, 9. Jake Granville, 10. James Tamou, 11. Gavin Cooper, 12. Ethan Lowe, 13. Jason Taumalolo. Interchange: 14. Rory Kostjasyn, 15. John Asiata, 16. Scott Bolton, 17. Ben Hannant
Dragons: 1. Josh Dugan, 2. Peter Mata'utia, 3. Euan Aitken, 4. Tim Lafai, 5. Jason Nightingale, 6. Gareth Widdop, 7. Benji Marshall, 8. Leeson Ah Mau, 9. Mitch Rein, 10. Russell Packer, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Joel Thompson, 13. Jack de Belin. Interchange: 14. Mike Cooper, 15. Will Matthews 16. Siliva Havili, 17. Jake Marketo, 18. Josh McCrone
UBET verdict: The Dragons rarely head north to the tropics (second time since 2009), and they do play well against the Cowboys, but this is a tough assignment. The Cowboys are hot favourites at $1.22 but there is some support for the Dragons with 12.5 points start ($1.90).
Sunday, April 3
Sydney Roosters ($2.10) v NZ Warriors ($1.75), Central Coast Stadium at 2:00pm AEST.
Roosters: 1. Latrell Mitchell, 2. Daniel Tupou, 3. Brendan Elliot, 4. Blake Ferguson, 5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall, 6. Jayden Nikorima, 7. Jackson Hastings, 8. Sam Moa, 9. Jake Friend, 10. Dylan Napa, 11. Mitchell Aubusson, 12. Aidan Guerra, 13. Sio Siua Taukeiaho. Interchange: 14. Isaac Liu, 15. Kane Evans, 16. Mitchell Frei, 17. Eloni Vunakece, 24. Abraham Papalii
Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 2. Tuimoala Lolohea, 3. Blake Ayshford, 4. Solomone Kata, 5. Manu Vatuvei, 6. Shaun Johnson, 7. Jeff Robson, 8. Jacob Lillyman, 9. Isaac Luke, 10. Ben Matulino, 11. Simon Mannering, 12. Ryan Hoffman, 13. Albert Vete. Interchange: 14. Jazz Tevaga, 15. Sam Lisone 16. Charlie Gubb, 17. Konrad Hurrell
UBET verdict: The Roosters have won 6 of the last 8 against the Warriors, and although the Warriors chalked up a win last week, both sides are struggling. Not much between them in the betting, early support has been for the Kiwi's to make it back to back wins.
Enter your ESPNfootytips NRL selections
Parramatta Eels ($1.50) v Penrith Panthers ($2.60), Pirtek Stadium 4:00pm AEST.
Eels: 1. Michael Gordon, 2. Semi Radradra, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Brad Takairangi, 5. Clint Gutherson, 6. Corey Norman, 7. Kieran Foran, 8. Junior Paulo, 9. Isaac De Gois, 10. Tim Mannah, 11. Manu Ma'u, 12. Beau Scott, 13. Tepai Moeroa. Interchange: 14. Kaysa Pritchard, 15. Peni Terepo, 16. Danny Wicks, 17. Ken Edwards, 18. David Gower
Panthers: 1. Matt Moylan, 2. Josh Mansour, 3. Waqa Blake, 4. Peta Hiku, 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 6. Te Maire Martin, 7. Jamie Soward, 8. Sam McKendry, 9. Peter Wallace, 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11. Bryce Cartwright, 12. Isaah Yeo, 13. Trent Merrin. Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey, 15. Lelani Latu, 16. Suaia Matagi, 17. James Fisher-Harris, 20. Elijah Taylor, 21. Jeremy Latimore
UBET verdict: The Eels are into 3rd picks to win the premiership, and have won their last couple at Pirtek against the Panthers. Both played in dour affairs last week, but Penrith have very little support to beat the Eels this week.
Monday, April 4
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($1.45) v Canberra Raiders ($2.80), Belmore Sports Ground at 7:00pm AEST.
Bulldogs: 1. Will Hopoate, 2. Curtis Rona, 3. Josh Morris, 4. Chase Stanley, 5. Sam Perrett, 6. Josh Reynolds, 7. Moses Mbye, 8. Aiden Tolman, 9. Craig Garvey, 10. James Graham, 11. Josh Jackson, 12. Tony Williams, 13. Greg Eastwood. Interchange: 14. Sam Kasiano, 15. Tim Browne, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Adam Elliott, 18. Lloyd Perrett
Raiders: 1. Jack Wighton, 2. Edrick Lee, 3. Jarrod Croker, 4. Joseph Leilua, 5. Jordan Rapana, 6. Blake Austin, 7. Aiden Sezer, 8. Shannon Boyd, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Frank-Paul Nuuausala, 11. Josh Papalii, 12. Elliott Whitehead, 13. Shaun Fensom. Interchange: 14. Kurt Baptiste, 15. Iosia Soliola, 16. Paul Vaughan, 17. Joseph Tapine, 18. Luke Bateman
UBET verdict: Canterbury's first home game v the Raiders since 2011. They have a good record against Canberra having won 4 of the last 5, including the last 3 where the winning margin on each occasion was in the 1-2 margin. Plenty of love for the Bulldogs in this game, both to win ($1.45) and to cover the line of 6.5 points start.