The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby takes place Saturday, and if my logic is correct, handicapping this Derby might be easier than ever.
On paper, things always appear that way, but this opportunity is unique in the racing industry. It's the only time bettors will have a shot to wager on a 20-horse field.
The complexion of this race has changed time and again over the past week as defections of top contenders Quality Road and Win Willy have allowed some probable toss-out runners into the race. The Churchill Downs surface -- playing predominantly to speed -- and the forecast for rain on Saturday also led to a few runners that can be tossed out.
Here are some things to know about the Derby:
• Post position is key. With 20 horses in a race, it is very difficult to win from the far inside or far outside. It's not impossible, as shown by Big Brown's victory from the 20-hole last year, but anything outside 16 is very tough.
• Closers are hurt by traffic as well. The dream rail rally in 2007 of Street Sense rarely occurs, as racing luck and tiring horses often get in the way.
• Finally, the track surface plays a huge factor. In the era of synthetic surfaces, no runner has won the Derby after a win at a synthetic track.
With all that being said, here's how I see the running of the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
Listed as the fourth choice in the morning line, Friesan Fire likely will go off as the favorite in the Derby, and rightfully so. One of the major stories of the race, Friesan Fire is trained by Larry Jones, who so gracefully handled the media blitz after the second-place effort and subsequent fatal injury to his filly, Eight Belles, in last year's Derby. Friesan Fire has won three consecutive races, all on dirt, most recently winning the Louisiana Derby in the slop in impressive fashion. His style suits, as he'll be close to the pace, and with a lack of pace in here, and the post six draw, everything seems to be "go" for Friesan Fire.
Drawing right next to Friesan Fire, in post seven, is Papa Clem. Trained by Gary Stute, Papa Clem ran second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby and followed that race with a victory in the Arkansas Derby on April 11. He's 20-1 in the morning line and is another who should be close to the pace.
Illinois Derby champion Musket Man continues the tradition of Illinois Derby winners going from Hawthorne to Churchill, as he's the eighth consecutive Illinois Derby champ to take on the Derby. A $15,000 purchase as a yearling, Musket Man joins Pioneerof the Nile as the only five-time winners entered in the Derby. He has improved every time out and jockey Eibar Coa has chosen to ride him over Blue Grass winner General Quarters in the Derby.
Then there's I Want Revenge. The morning-line favorite at 3-1, he is trained by Jeff Mullins and ridden by talented youngster Joe Talamo. He was great in a pair of wins in New York, recently winning the Wood Memorial after a horrible start, but losses on poly to Papa Clem and Pioneerof the Nile work against him. Running style could be problematic as well, as a poor start in the Derby automatically wipes him out in a field of 20.
Finally, there's Dunkirk. The hot horse that didn't have enough earnings to get into the Derby, he was able to sneak into the field after numerous defections and stands a chance in the race. With only three lifetime starts, immaturity could work against him and with jockey Garrett Gomez choosing Pioneerof the Nile over him, it would seem that he might be a wise-guy horse.
After tossing poly track runners Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and Pioneerof the Nile, along with those who don't look fast enough such as West Side Bernie, Mine That Bird, Join the Dance, Atomic Rain, Summer Bird, Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private, it appears easy.
I'll go with Friesan Fire in top, followed by Papa Clem and Musket Man. If playing gimmicks, toss in Regal Ransom, General Quarters, Dunkirk and Desert Party and roll the dice. Regardless, the Derby is the most exciting two minutes in sports and is worth watching for every sports fan.
Jim Miller is the Director of Racing at Hawthorne Race Course, a horse owner, and 16-year veteran of local horse racing.