Kraken vs. Gregzilla. Balkman vs. Brownlee. Cone vs. Austria. The Crunchman vs. The GIN-eral. This San Miguel-Barangay Ginebra series for the 2018 PBA Commissioner's Cup title is going to be big. We asked Chuck Araneta, Charlie Cuna, Carlo Pamintuan, Jutt Sulit and Noel Zarate for their takes.
1. True or false: The two best Commissioner's Cup teams are in the finals.
Araneta: True, with due respect to a resurgent conference from Rain or Shine. The most over qualified 5th and 6th seeds in PBA history took some time to find the right mix. But with Brownlee and Balkman back in harness, along with relatively good health all around (get well Japeth!), they took off and peaked at the right time.
Cuna: False. The two best teams in the second half of the Commissioner's Cup are in the finals. Both these teams were clearly not the best teams early on. They had imports who did not fit, dealt with injuries, and simply lost a number of games in the first half of the elimination round. They recovered, re-loaded, and now, are re-entering the finals as the best playoff teams with the best imports, the best local big men, and two of the best coaches in recent (well, in Coach Tim Cone's case, all-time) PBA history.
Pamintuan: Don't let the slow starts fool you. When these two teams hired the services of Renaldo Balkman and Justin Brownlee, it was only a matter of time before they became the best. The best case scenario for the other playoff teams was if these two teams met in the quarterfinals or semifinals.
Sulit: False. San Miguel and Ginebra are two teams that gained rhythm in the middle of the conference and peaked at the right time. If we're talking about the full stretch of the tournament, Rain or Shine has to be one of the two best teams. It just unfortunate for them that they bumped into a rampaging Ginebra.
Zarate: True. Rain or Shine and Alaska had great runs in the elims but their opponents were peaking in the playoffs. San Miguel and Ginebra have been on dark horse tags from the get-go. They've proven to be elite anew.
2. On a scale of 1 to 5, 1 being least important, how important is the Balkman-Brownlee match-up?
Araneta: 5. If there were any other import playing for Ginebra in Game 3, the Elastopainters would be up 2-1 heading into Game 4. And how many times has Balkman's energy, motor and drive saved San Miguel?
Cuna: This has to be a 5. Their matchup will be epic. These are the two best imports of the conference overall, with athleticism, desire, skill, and the will to win. They may have been teammates in the past, but will now go into battle trying to one-up each other, no holds barred. While we do not expect them to have any physical confrontations or to get into each other's faces menacingly, we do want them to try and outdo each other as each game progresses, make their teammates better, and just do whatever it takes to get wins. They will provide much excitement ,highlights, and high-level play that will raise the level of entertainment that the series can bring. The fans are going to enjoy this duel and, for that, the import match-up is one to savor.
Pamintuan: Because of the talent of both these players, I think they would ultimately cancel each other out. There will be games when Brownlee wins the matchup because of his versatility. There will be other games where Balkman will simply dominate because of his effort on both ends but I don't think this will be the matchup that would crown the champion. On a scale of 1-5, I'd give it a 3 because I think the June Mar Fajardo versus Greg Slaughter matchup and even the LA Tenorio versus Alex Cabagnot matchup will dictate where this series goes.
Sulit: 3. It's a great storyline. It's an even better basketball match-up. But it will not determine the winner of the series. The reason why these two imports made it all the way to the Finals is because they have reliable locals surrounding them. Those guys are going to be as important in this series as Brownlee and Balkman.
Zarate: 5. It is THE matchup. These are two imports who have helped each other win in the past and will now give everything they have to kill each other. Tim Cone is right; he doesn't expect them to be chummy on the floor. This is for a championship and if you're looking at that Fajardo-Slaughter duel as being the key matchup, your basketball is screwed up.
3. Barangay Ginebra will win it all because...
Araneta: They're in a unique spot as one of the only teams that have an answer size-wise for Fajardo. Their defense is still sound, and their offense is perkier with Jeff Chan finding his groove. If they can stay healthy, they have a great shot.
Cuna: Justin Brownlee is on the Tim Cone bus and they will do everything needed to go on a victory ride. Brownlee can be almost unstoppable on offense and picks his spots perfectly. The crowd will once again be behind the Gin Kings, who have wily veterans (Tenorio, Devance, Caguoia, Chan), young stars (Thompson, Ferrer), and the size to match up with SMB (Aguilar, Slaughter). Plus, being the underdog might be an advantage as this team really has nothing to lose since there is no shame in losing to a team like SMB. The pressure is on the Beermen to repeat.
Pamintuan: They have the best tools to deal with SMB and they have an import who does not know how to lose in the finals. They also have the greatest tactician in PBA history. In the first matchup between Tim Cone and Leo Austria in the finals, SMB came out on top but Cone did not have all of his weapons at his disposal. This time around they will be sending in an almost 100% healthy team with Japeth Aguilar being the only exception.
Sulit: They are most deadly when reinforced by Justin Brownlee. The locals are not just familiar with him. They're comfortable with him as their import. Thus, the confidence of the entire team reaches a whole new level. We all saw how the team picked up when he came into the picture.
Zarate: They have redefined what the Commissioner's Cup is all about. Teams usually get those 6'9" space-takers or burly inside presences to beef them up, but Ginebra got a 6'4" winner and with their complete lineup can dethrone the Beermen. Ginebra also addressed their range issues by acquiring Jeff Chan and with Japeth Aguilar now at almost 100%, Ginebra finally has all it needs to topple their big sisters.
4. San Miguel will win it all because...
Araneta: They're still very good at this basketball thing.
Cuna: They are the defending champions and will not easily surrender their title. They have probably the deepest bench in the league, tremendous size (four-time MVP Fajardo, Standhardinger, Nabong), scorers at every position, and the know-how to deal with any situation. Its defense is relentless, particularly in the backcourt and the perimeter, and there is a bevy of clutch performers who have been there, done that, in championship series in the past. Balkman is the x-factor though. His all-around game makes life easier for everyone else.
Pamintuan: They know what it takes to win it all and their confidence has not been shaken in the finals. Fajardo, simply put, might just be the best player we've ever seen in the history of the PBA and we're watching him performing in his prime, surrounded by a bunch of winners who have willingly taken a step back because they know just how special Fajardo is.
Sulit: They have the best local squad in the entire league and now they even have a ridiculously talented import backing them up.
Zarate: San Miguel developed a bench practically overnight to help give its overworked starters some rest to get them ready for this impending saga. The Beermen now have the likes of Brian Heruela, Kelly Nabong and Christian Standhardinger to give impact minutes while Renaldo Balkman has kept his word by keeping his cool. Of course the San Miguel starters are still the most lethal in the league and with all of these in place, it is starting to look like this title defense is a certainty.
5. So who wins?
Araneta: San Miguel in 7 games
Cuna: It's difficult to go against the defending champs with the four-time MVP. SMB in 6 hard-fought, matira matibay games.
Pamintuan: Barangay Ginebra will give SMB all they can handle in this series but, at the end of the day, I think the Beermen will simply have more ammunition. I think they will defend their title in a series that will stretch to seven games and that TBA in the schedule would end up being the Philippine Arena.
Sulit: San Miguel in 6.
Zarate: SMB in 7.