Alaska's final six games in the 2021 PBA Philippine Cup will determine whether the numbers from the first five contests were a fluke, or an indication that the team is on the cusp of a breakthrough.
The Aces look like a top contender if we're basing solely on what they've shown on paper, as they seem to be doing fine on both ends. In a conference where everyone is basically missing shots, Alaska is just one of four teams shooting above 40 percent, and only one of two squads to feature both a top-five offense and defense.
But context matters, especially in such a small sample size as five games. After all, Alaska (2-3) ranks eighth in the only stat that matters - wins. There's a good chance that the Aces' numbers may have been inflated by 26-point victories against subpar offenses in Blackwater and Rain or Shine; also, the team's three losses came against those who entered the season as presumptive playoff bets.
Still, you can't help but feel optimistic if you're the Aces. Two of those defeats may have probably been winnable, and a couple of offseason surprises have surprisingly held the fort throughout this stretch as the team's top stars continue to grope for form in the All-Filipino Conference.
Here's a look at what's been working (and what hasn't been) for Alaska at the moment.
(Editor's note: Numbers are courtesy of Stats by Ryan on DribbleMedia.com, a collection of advanced stats for the PBA that uses up-to-date totals and formulas from both NBA.com/Stats and Basketball Reference, as well as other independent hoops websites.)
The Good: Gab Banal is shooting the lights out, while Yousef Taha has been a shot in the arm for the frontcourt
Who would have thought that Alaska's most effective players early on would be two guys who weren't even in the PBA last year?
Taha and Banal wasted little time in their respective comebacks and have provided immense value for the Aces, who are reaping the benefits of taking a flier on both journeymen in the offseason.
The 30-year-old Banal, the 2018-19 MPBL MVP who signed a one-conference deal last February, is playing like a man who probably shouldn't have been out of the league since 2017, as he is averaging a team-high 11.8 points on 52.4 percent shooting to go with 3.2 rebounds and 1.0 assists in 22.3 minutes.
Banal might have been the league's best three-point shooter in the first five games due to the combination of volume and accuracy that few guys matched. Among players who have attempted more than four triples a game, Banal's 54.2 percent mark is easily the best; his Spacing rating - a metric attempting to capture a player's effect on his team's spacing - leads everyone by far, too.
A quick look at his film reinforces the idea that Banal is a stone-cold shooter. There's no hesitation when he jacks up his shots against defenses who are quickly learning that helping off or sagging off of Banal is not a good idea. Don't be surprised if scouting reports pay a little more diligence in order to take away a lot of his looks, because he is just scorching; Banal's effective field goal percentage - an improved version of FG% that takes into account the additional value of three-point shots - currently stands at 67.9 percent, a number that's tied for tops in the league today.
The passing will follow, as a result. Banal averaged 6.4 assists when he won MVP in the MPBL, and 5.9 dimes in under 28 minutes in his last season in the semi-pro league; he hasn't been put in a lot of situations to create plays for others with Alaska, but he's displayed enough flashes in the first five games to merit trust that he can handle himself well in that area.
Taha, who last saw action in 2019, has been a pleasant surprise as well, especially when you consider that he has to compete for minutes with four other mainstays in the Aces frontcourt. He's held his own, for the most part, averaging 11.4 points on 51.3 percent shooting, a sixth-best 9.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.2 blocks (eighth), and 1.0 steals; some dip is expected, though these figures would rank as career-highs by far if he sustains them moving forward.
The offense doesn't really run a lot through the 30-year-old center, but he gets points anyway simply because he takes up a lot of space underneath the basket. Taha's an easy target for teammates and he gets fouled a lot, drawing 6.0 free throw attempts per game - currently the second-most on a per-game basis - though he's only hit 57.6 percent of them.
Taha is still not an elite defensive center on film, but the rebounding and the blocks are not inflated and have not been an aberration. Whenever he's on the floor, the 6-foot-8 big man grabs 17.0 percent of available rebounds and blocks 4.4 percent of available shots - both marks ranking sixth and ninth among all players, respectively. Taha's also been a big part of why Alaska has been the best rebounding team by far; the Aces have collected a league-high 56 a game, compared to the 46.8 boards (second-lowest) that opponents have grabbed.
The Not-So-Good: Last year's top scorers have not been making shots yet
As reliable as Banal and Taha have been, Alaska, like most teams in the league, can only go as far as their established stars will take them. Jeron Teng and Robbie Herndon were relatively efficient last year, but even they were not spared from the frigid starts that have affected many of today's top players.
In 2020, Teng ranked third in team scoring with 11.3 points (41.4/31.3/76 shooting splits), 4.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists (a top-12 mark) and 0.8 steals in 25.1 minutes and 12 games. This year, those marks are down to 7.6 points on 34.1/14.3/70 splits and 2.8 assists in 22 minutes, though the former De La Salle University star has bumped up his rebounding (5.8).
Herndon was one of the more efficient scorers inside the "bubble" tournament in Pampanga, but like Teng, he has yet to find his groove. After tallying 12.5 points (second) on 45 percent shooting, the California native so far has only put up 6.0 points while making just 32 percent of his shots.
The numbers will probably normalize, but for Alaska to make another playoff push, the duo need to find their rhythm fast.
What To Watch: Free throw shooting
Alaska may be wasting a lot of points due to their free throw shooting. The Aces have attempted 26.8 free throws (first), but they have only converted 57 percent -- the second-lowest figure so far. Suffice to say, some improvement in that area is necessary.