Big Picture: India in the ascendancy at last
All it took was an injection of the big guns, as India's flat-lining tour of the UK finally found its pulse at Edgbaston on Tuesday. A six-wicket victory in the first ODI didn't exactly put the world to rights after the horrors of the T20I legs that preceded it. But, in inflicting England's first 50-over loss at the venue since 2014, they did at least steal a march in the white-ball format that most matters for now, given the relative proximity of next year's World Cup in South Africa.
As the teams reconvene in Cardiff, England won't have many doubts about where it all went wrong for them. They seemed to have done the hard work, in grinding out a 61-run opening stand that involved an ego-less absorption of Jasprit Bumrah's magnificent new-ball spell, but then stuttered in extraordinary fashion.
Not many sides recover from a middle-order collapse of 5 for 19 in 27 balls, and sure enough England did not, even though Joe Root and Liam Dawson did their utmost with a spirited stand of 121 that at least permitted a token score on the board. Root, however, should have joined the collapse on 7, when Shivam Dube dropped a return catch, and gutsy though Dawson proved to be in making his maiden ODI fifty, he clearly should not have been playing at all, given how badly England misread their own conditions.
As Harry Brook proved, in frontloading his three quick bowlers on an unexpectedly bouncy, seaming surface, England proved to be at least ten overs light on pace stocks, and paid the price with the ease of India's stroll to victory. It's not a mistake they are likely to make in Cardiff, where the ground's notorious dimensions - short, straight boundaries and deep pockets square of the wicket - make a pitch-hitting option a pre-requisite. Tellingly, Brydon Carse has been fast-tracked into the squad after his recovery from injury and is in contention for an outing on Thursday.
For India, they are one win away from their first silverware of the tour, and can be broadly content with their overall display at Edgbaston. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli may have offered little on their returns to the fray, while KL Rahul's cheap dismissal briefly threatened an England fightback, but Shubman Gill's 80 from 75 balls was a class apart.
His mere presence denied Brook the chance to peel off some cheap spin overs and spread his spearheads more widely, and though his retirement with a century in sight was a concern to his camp, it appears he suffered nothing more serious than an attack of cramp.
Fundamentally, however, Bumrah showed the value of a bit of R and R. After a tough IPL by his immense standards, he was back to his ruthless best in his first competitive outing since May, and where he led the line, Prasidh Krishna and the energetic Gurnoor Brar were able to slipstream his standards and leave an unconvincing England team in the mire.
Irrespective of their impressive displays in the T20Is, England's ODI shortcomings show no immediate sign of a redress. Their rock of ages, Root, showed once more the technique and concentration required to make the most of a full 50-over innings, but too few of his team-mates yet have the know-how to do likewise. Which is why these next two matches, against a team containing some of the greatest ODI cricketers of all time, will be so crucial to their education, no matter which side of the result they end up on.
Form Guide
England: LWWLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
India: WWWWL
In the spotlight: Jacob Bethell and Gurnoor Brar
So far in his young career, Jacob Bethell has done an awful lot of learning on the hoof, and by and large he's come through with flying colours. A precocious introduction as England's Test No. 3 in both New Zealand and the Ashes, a pivotal role in the T20 World Cup in India, and even a taste of the white-ball captaincy at the age of 21. But being asked to open in ODIs is perhaps the toughest assignment yet. His approach in the more extreme formats has been easier to calibrate: see ball, hit ball in T20Is; pare your game back to a handful of go-to strokes, allied to a judicious leave, in Tests. But on Tuesday, he fell between two stools in his 14 from 31 - albeit he had Bumrah up-top to contend with. But as Jamie Smith showed when shunted up to open in the Champions Trophy, just because you have potential in the role, there are no guarantees of success.
Gurnoor Brar earned his opportunity on this trip with a lively haul of seven wickets in three matches against Afghanistan last month, and he let no-one down with a sparky display at Edgbaston. From the outset, he was drawn into a feisty duel with Ben Duckett, who took his first over for 17 runs, but he soon emerged on the right side of the ledger, dismissing both openers in the space of four balls to trigger England's mid-innings meltdown. His short ball to Bethell, caught at deep square leg, was perhaps the most instructive for the contest ahead. Those deep pockets square of the wicket are ripe for some energetic pitch-hitting.
Team news: More quicks in prospect
England's misread of the Edgbaston pitch was a significant error, and not one they are likely to make again. Despite his excellent batting, Dawson is the likely fall guy for Cardiff's rectangular dimensions, with the onus on including an extra pace option. Josh Tongue and Jofra Archer have both had heavy workloads - from the New Zealand Test series and on into five of the last six white-ball games - so either or both could be due a break. Brydon Carse, newly added to the squad, might slot in, with Saqib Mahmood and Gus Atkinson the other options.
England (possible): 1 Ben Duckett, 2 Jacob Bethell, 3 Joe Root, 4 Harry Brook (capt), 5 Jos Buttler (wk), 6 Sam Curran, 7 Will Jacks, 8 Jofra Archer, 9 Josh Tongue/Brydon Carse, 10 Saqib Mahmood, 11 Adil Rashid.
With Gill apparently fit after his batting retirement on Tuesday, and having located their winning formula at Edgbaston, there are no over-riding reasons for India to make changes. Arshdeep Singh waits in the wings as a seam-bowling reinforcement.
India (probable): 1 Rohit Sharma, 2 Shubman Gill (capt), 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 Axar Patel, 6 KL Rahul (wk), 7 Washington Sundar, 8 Shivam Dube, 9 Jasprit Bumrah, 10 Gurnoor Brar, 11 Prasidh Krishna.
Pitch and conditions:
In the broad sweep of Cardiff's ODI history, it is something of a bowl-first venue - with eight of the 12 matches in the past decade going to the chasing side. The ongoing UK heatwave is set to contribute to another fast outfield.
Stats and trivia:
Cardiff is something of a stronghold for England, with ten wins in 14 completed ODIs at the venue, dating back to 2010.
India, however, has a 3-1 winning record in its four matches there so far. They lost by six wickets to England in 2011, but won by 133 runs on their return three years later. In between whiles they beat both Sri Lanka and South Africa in 2013, en route to Champions Trophy glory.
Prasidh Krishna needs three more wickets to reach 50 in ODIs.
Shubman Gill returns to the ground he briefly called home, having spent three matches as Glamorgan's overseas player in September 2022.
Quotes:
"At the age I've got to, I never thought I'd play as much as I have in the last year. Obviously I'm very pleased to be back playing and I can hopefully continue to contribute."
Liam Dawson is enjoying a new lease of life at 36.
"When you see your middle order score like that, you get a lot of confidence as captain and as a top-order batter. It gives you confidence and means you can start attacking early on."
Shubman Gill took pleasure in Axar Patel and Washington Sundar's partnership at Edgbaston.
