Much has been said and written about Pakistan's abject capitulation in the two Tests in England this season, but apart from everything else, the Lord's loss was also a statistically significant result: it was their 154th Test defeat, one more than the number of matches they've won in their Test history. Their win-loss ratio thus slipped to less than 1 - at 0.993 - for the first time in nearly 40 years. The last time that ratio was below one was just before England's infamous tour to Pakistan in 1987. (Anyone remember Shakoor Rana vs Mike Gatting?) Victory in the first Test of that series in Lahore took their win-loss record to 40-40 after 171 Tests, and the ratio remained 1.00 or more through their next 301 matches, till the Lord's debacle last week.
For a nation which has largely been extremely successful in Test cricket, the recent numbers are a major reversal. In the 1980s and 1990s, the cut it with the very best, and were the only team who consistently matched up against West Indies: in those two decades, their win-loss ratio of 1.617 (55 wins, 34 defeats) was next only to West Indies' 2.027, among teams which played at least 75 Tests during this period.
Fast forward to the current era, and Pakistan are scraping the barrel. In the 2020s their win-loss numbers have dropped to 16-24, and in the last four-and-a-half years it's even worse: 8-20 since the start of 2022, the poorest among all teams with a 20-Test cut-off. In fact, the two teams who ruled in the 1980s and '90s are now right at the bottom, with West Indies only marginally better at 9-20.
The string of defeats over the last few years has also brought about another significant statistical shift: for the first time since after their first Test match in 1952, Pakistan's win-loss ratio has slipped below that of their arch rival India. The difference, admittedly, is in the third decimal - India's 187-188 record gives them a ratio of 0.994 - but it represents a huge change for a team which has always had the best Test numbers among their Asian rivals.
So how did Pakistan suffer such a decline? Let's look at the key numbers which throw light on how Pakistan lost their way in Test cricket.
A wretched decade
In truth, Pakistan's Test team has been in decline for a while now: in 12 of the last 19 years since 2007 - there were no Tests in 2008 - they have lost more matches than they have won; since 2016, they've had eight such years out of 11. Just before that, in July 2006, their win-loss differential was the joint-highest it's ever been in their Test history: +18, with 100 wins to 82 defeats in 321 matches.
Till 2015, that differential remained at a respectable 15, with 126 wins to 111 defeats. From 2016 the decline accelerated rapidly, as illustrated by the 27-43 record, which has wiped out the credit balance in the win-loss sheet, and put them in the red. The beginning of that phase was also when the Younis-Misbah duo was on their last legs - they retired in May 2017 - and since then most aspects of Pakistan's Test cricket have disintegrated. This period also coincided with India's tremendous rise, when they won almost twice as many Tests as they lost (61-30).
As the breakup of these numbers illustrates, between 2016 and 2021 Pakistan struggled in the SENA countries (South Africa, England, New Zealand, Australia), but made up for those numbers to a large extent with their record at home and at other overseas venues - they were 5-0 in Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and Ireland combined, and 3-2 in the West Indies. Since 2022, though, even their home numbers have nosedived to 4-9, while they also lost 2-0 in Bangladesh and only managed a 1-1 draw in the West Indies.
Batters plumb the depths
In 32 Tests since the start of 2022, Pakistan have been bowled out for under 250 on 29 occasions, which is a record for them in any 32-Test block. Seventeen of those were sub-200 totals, which is the second-highest - the only instance of more such totals for Pakistan in a 32-Test block was in their first 32 matches, from 1952 to 1960, when there were 19 sub-200 scores.
In four innings in England so far, they have ticked both boxes each time, with totals of 110, 194, 171 and 135. On average, they have lasted 43.2 overs per innings, which means getting bowled out twice in a 90-over day. In fact, in 12 Tests since Boxing Day 2024 in Centurion, Pakistan have been bowled out for under 250 in both innings of a match five times, which illustrates just how dire the batting has been.
During this period, no Pakistan batter has scored 750-plus runs at an average of 45 or more. Saud Shakeel comes closest with 1934 runs at 42.97, while Babar Azam averages 42.82 for his 2227 runs. In the same period, 15 batters from other teams have achieved the double of 750 runs and 45 average. Contrast that with the period between 2011 and 2015, when Pakistan had seven batters meeting those two criteria in a 32-Test block.
The last name on that list above is that of Azhar Ali, who is also the last Pakistan batter to get to 5000 Test runs. Since his Test debut in July 2010, 21 other batters have scored 5000 Test runs, but none from Pakistan. Not surprisingly, Pakistan's overall batting average during this period is 28.24, sixth among the nine teams which have played at least 20 matches during this period.
Where's the pace yaar?
Pakistan have had some terrific batters over the years, but the jewel in their cricket crown has always been the bowling, especially the pace attack. Every era of the Pakistan Test team has had some unforgettable bowlers, from Fazal Mahmood to Imran Khan to the Wasim-Waqar duo, to Shoaib Akhtar and Mohammad Asif (not to forget the spin wizardry of Abdul Qadir, Saqlain Mushtaq and Saeed Ajmal).
The current crop, though, is rather tame by comparison, both in terms of pace and skill. That's reflected in a bowling average of 34 in these last 32 Tests since 2022, which ranks them eighth out of nine teams in this period (with a 20-Test cut-off). South Africa were marginally below Pakistan in terms of batting average, but that figure of 28 doesn't look so bad when it's juxtaposed with a bowling average of 23.75.
What will hurt Pakistani fans even more, though, are the pace-bowling numbers in this period - an average of 35.53, and a strike rate of 59.37, both being the worst among these nine teams. In these matches, the opposition fast bowlers averaged just 27.13. That is perhaps indicative of Pakistan's batting strength (or lack thereof), but it also illustrates their relative ineffectiveness in an aspect they used to dominate.
As with the batters, most of the bowlers have also struggled to establish themselves as regular members over the last several years. The last bowler to take 150 Test wickets was Yasir Shah, in September 2017. Since his debut in October 2014, no other Pakistan bowler has managed even 130 Test wickets - the next best is Mohammad Abbas' 128, while Shaheen Shah Afridi (126) and Noman Ali (101) are the only others with 100-plus wickets in this period.
The constant chop and change
All three bowlers mentioned above - Abbas, Afridi and Noman - average under 30, but the selections have been so fickle (due to various reasons) that none of the bowlers have had a consistent run. In these last 32 Tests since the start of 2022, the most matches played by any specialist bowler is just 15, by Noman Ali. The most consecutive Tests played by a bowler in this period is six, by legspinner Abrar Ahmed; among pacers, it's five by Aamer Jamal.
The lack of consistency in team selection has been a consistent theme in Pakistan cricket for several years, but especially so since 2022. Only twice in 32 Tests in this period have they played unchanged XIs: against Sri Lanka in Colombo in 2023 and against England in Rawalpindi in 2024. On both occasions, they won and sealed the series. They made three or more changes to their XI on 18 occasions and at least four changes on 11, more than a third of the Tests they played since 2022.
As many as 38 players featured in 32 Tests that Pakistan played since the start of 2022. Taking 11 players for the first of those matches, it means they used 27 more players for the remaining 31 Tests, a rate of 0.87 new players per Test. Among the WTC teams, only South Africa had a higher rate, but that is largely because of the second-string team they sent to New Zealand for the Test series in 2024.
All the constant chopping and changing has meant that only seven players have featured in at least half of the matches Pakistan played in this period, six of them top-order batters. Since Azhar Ali's retirement in December 2022, they have not fielded a player with either 5000-plus runs or 150-plus wickets in their playing XIs.
And while 60 players have debuted for Pakistan in Tests since 2011, only one, Babar Azam, has played 50 matches or scored 3000 runs, and only Yasir Shah has taken 150-plus wickets. Compare with India, and those stats look even worse: India have had 53 debutants in this period, of whom 10 have played 50-plus Tests, eight have scored 3000-plus runs, and five have taken 150-plus wickets.
There'll be more debutants for Pakistan at Edgbaston next Wednesday, but whichever XI takes the field, their first priority will be to stop the rot that the team find themselves in. In their last 20 Tests they have lost 15, which is the joint worst 20-Test stretch - in terms of matches lost - for the eight oldest Test-playing nations (excludes Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Ireland, Afghanistan). If they lose the third Test, it'll be the worst 21-match stretch. Can the new-look Pakistan team - with a new-look support staff - defy the odds and their recent form?
With inputs from Shiva Jayaraman