With only 10 series to go (plus one Test remaining in the ongoing Bangladesh-West Indies series) out of 27 in the current WTC cycle, things are heating up for a spot in the final at The Oval in June 2027.
In the last two cycles, the qualifying mark has exceeded 65% for three of the four finalists; the only exception were India making the final with 58.8% in 2023. In 2025, both finalists had more than 67% points.
Here's a look at the team positions in the current cycle, and what they need to do to reach 60% and beyond.
New Zealand
Tests: 6, W-L-D: 4-1-1, Pct 72.22
Remaining series: vs Ind (h), Aus (a), SL (h), Pak (a) (10 Tests)
South Africa's 2-1 series win against Australia has pushed New Zealand to the top of the table - even if barely - but it's important to remember that they have played only two out of six series in this cycle. Four of their 10 remaining Tests are in Australia, a country where they've lost 10 of their last 12 Tests.
From the remaining 120 points on offer, New Zealand will need 64 to achieve 60%, which they can get with five wins and a draw. Four of those victories could come in their home season, if they win all Tests against India and Sri Lanka. For a place in the final, though, they'll probably need more than just home success: with six wins and three losses they'll finish on 64.58%, while seven wins and three losses will leave them on 70.83%.
South Africa
Tests: 7, W-L-D: 5-2-0, Pct 71.43
Remaining series: Ban (h), Eng (h), SL (a) (7 Tests)
Their fantastic victory against Australia means South Africa are arguably best placed to make the final. To make the 60% mark, they need 41 more points, which they can get with three wins and a couple of draws. South Africa will be hoping that two of those wins will come in the home series against Bangladesh, which starts on November 15.
Bangladesh showed on their tour to Australia that no team can take them lightly, but if South Africa do get 24 points there, they'll need one more win and a couple of draws from five remaining Tests to get to 60%. Two wins and three losses will take them to 64.28%, while three wins and two losses will mean 71.43, and near-certain qualification.
However, it's unlikely South Africa will be looking that far ahead: for now, their focus will be on keeping up their high standards in the upcoming series against Bangladesh.
Australia
Tests: 13, W-L-D: 9-4-0, Pct 69.23
Remaining series: NZ (h), Ind (a) (9 Tests)
The start to Australia's frenetic year of Test cricket hasn't been ideal - they've lost three of their last five Tests - but they have opportunities to undo that damage over the next nine Tests. To reach 60%, Australia need 51 more points, which translates into four wins and a draw.
In the best-case scenario, those four wins will come in the home series against New Zealand, an opposition they've dominated recently. Those points could also be crucial as their last series of the current cycle will be in India, where they have lost 12 of their last 18 Tests and won only two.
Five wins will take them to 63.63, while six wins and three losses will lift them to 68.18, and near-certain qualification.
India
Tests: 11, W-L-D: 5-4-2, Pct 51.52
Remaining series: vs NZ (a), Aus (h) (7 Tests)
Currently at 51.52%, India have plenty to do to stay in contention. Even if they win each of their remaining seven Tests and don't drop any over-rate points, they'll still finish with only 70.37%. Six wins and a draw will leave them on 66.67, while six wins and a defeat will see them finish on 64.81%. Thus, India have very little margin for error.
However, given that all their remaining Tests are against teams which are in contention, wins for India will also mean points lost for those teams. For instance, even if Australia win five Tests and New Zealand six (and lose the remaining ones), both teams will finish marginally below 64.81%.
Bangladesh
Tests: 7, W-L-D: 3-3-1, Pct 47.62
Remaining series: vs WI (h), SA (a), Eng (h) (5 Tests)
The defeat to West Indies in the first Test of the ongoing home series has badly hurt Bangladesh's chances. Even if they win each of their five remaining Tests - which includes two in South Africa - the maximum they can finish on is 69.44%. If they lose one of those matches, they will drop to 61.11, which will leave them at the mercy of several other results.
England
Tests: 16, W-L-D: 7-8-1, Pct 38.54
Remaining series: SA (a), Ban (a) (5 Tests)
Even though they beat Pakistan 3-0 in their most recent Test series, England have little cause for optimism in the current cycle. Even if they win all five remaining Tests and don't lose any further penalty points - which needs mentioning, given it's England - they'll only finish on 53.17%. However, series wins in South Africa and Bangladesh will be the ideal momentum builder towards a strong challenge in the next WTC cycle, which begins with a home Ashes series in 2027.
Sri Lanka
Tests: 6, W-L-D: 1-2-3, Pct 33.33
Remaining series: vs Pak (a), NZ (a), SA (h) (6 Tests)
With only 33.33% points from their first three series, Sri Lanka have far too much to do in the second half of their WTC campaign. Even if they win each of their remaining six Tests, they'll end up on 66.67%. If they lose one, they'll drop to 58.33.
West Indies
Tests: 13, W-L-D: 3-8-2, Pct 26.92
Remaining series: vs Ban (a) (1 Test)
While New Zealand have four series still to go in the current cycle, West Indies are just one Test away from closing theirs, which is illustrative of the lopsided and quirky scheduling of the WTC.
Pakistan
Tests: 9, W-L-D: 2-7-0, Pct 4.63
Remaining series: SL (h), NZ (h) (4 Tests)
Pakistan have played almost twice as many Tests as the points they've gathered (five). That says enough about their dire campaign.