BUENOS AIRES -- Pressure, fatigue, an opponent on the ropes, the weight of history and the virtues of a team with everything on the line in two matches. These are the keys for Boca to come out on top in this series against River Plate.
Pressure
For Boca, after a long period without success, getting this far means there's no better chance to salvage the year, a true "gift from heaven." Out of contention for the league title, Boca was almost eliminated by lowly Capiata in the Copa Sudamericana, but they survived a nail-biting penalty shootout and then handily defeated Cerro Porteño. Now comes River Plate...
River Plate is under a lot more pressure because they have everything to lose. If Boca knocks them out of the Copa, it'll ruin the end of the year for them, even if they still win the league. The Xeneizes, on the other hand, are on a roll. Still in "mourning" after former head coach Carlos Bianchi's exit, the team is growing, though still learning.
River's the team that had a 31-game unbeaten streak, the team that showed moments of great soccer, which had them at the top of the table for almost the entire season, advancing to the semifinals of the Copa Sudamericana without breaking a sweat. If Boca can use that pressure in their favor, they'll have a significant advantage in this defining series.
Fatigue
There is no doubt: River is heading into this match more fatigued than Boca. The Xeneizes had the luxury of "saving" their starters against Arsenal last Sunday, while River had to call on the best of their squad against Olimpo. And in the end, they drew. You can feel the fatigue this late in the year and more so in a team like Marcelo Gallardo's, which doesn't have a deep bench.
On top of that, the Millionarios don't have many options and "suffered" as Teo Gutiérrez and Carlos Sánchez, two of their key players, were called up to their respective national teams. In between the two matches against Boca, they visit Racing, who are one point behind, in Avellaneda. And "El Muñeco" will have to draw on the best of his repertoire to not lose the lead. Boca? They'll field an alternate squad again.
The opponent
River, who recently won the league and who are going to try to win it all during the rest of 2014, are going through their toughest stretch since Gallardo arrived. The unbeaten streak came to an end against Estudiantes a few days ago, and coming into this match they are looking much more vulnerable.
Certainly, ever since key midfielder Matias Kranevitter got injured, the Millionarios haven't had the same level of play as they did at the start of the season, but effectiveness and flashes of good soccer have continued to appear. In recent matches, however, they haven't been the same. Whether because of fatigue, the pressure of playing against Boca or the unconscious fear of possibly losing it all in a handful of matches, the Millionarios no longer seem invincible.
In putting an end to the unbeaten streak, Estudiantes exposed some weaknesses that had been observed in previous matches, weaknesses that were painted over by dint of determination and opportunism. Olimpo, Walter Perazzo's lowly Olimpo, exposed them once again. If Boca plays smart, they can take advantage of their opponent's poor form and make it count.
History
It's true that no team wins just because of the uniform they wear, and it's also true that each match is its own story, but in these matches in particular, Boca's advantage against River is overwhelming. The Xeneizes always have a little bit extra in their favor in these head-to-head shown downs, and on this occasion they'll also be hoping history is on their side.
Not only has Boca beaten River more in international matches but also in domestic matches too: the only head-to-head, the 1976 domestic league final, went to the Xeneizes, following a memorable goal by Chapa Suñé from a free kick.
The team
Notwithstanding River's weaknesses, Boca has their own wherewithal to come out on top in this historical face-off. Boca coach Rodolfo Arruabarrena has empowered a team, criticized among their own and by outsiders, that was once downtrodden in terms of play and moral. Today, while still learning their way, Boca is a team that knows what's at stake. And they have positive factors that could be decisive.
If there is one thing Andrés Chávez is missing that would fully welcome him into the hearts of Boca fans, it's two magnificent matches against his team's biggest rival. The former Banfield striker, in terms of power, determination and effectiveness in front of the net, is a fundamental player and unquestionable in Arruabarrena's starting XI.
He needs to calm down, sure, but he's a nightmare for opposing defenses because of his stubborn perseverance. And he's found a perfect partner in Jonathan Calleri, who's earned himself a place next to the "Commander" by dint of sacrifice and fighting for every loose ball. Cesar Meli, who also has earned a starting spot under the new coach, is the motor that powers Boca in the midfield: he runs, penetrates, marks and displays good judgment with the ball at his feet.
Fernando Gago is on an upswing. We already know everything he's capable of. And in these two matches, he could change his image as the angry player who's always protesting to that of the great player he really is. Agustin Orión and Cata Díaz, who's returning from a long spell off the pitch, can also bring their experience.
What's more, Arruabarrena has a first-class substitute. Emanuel Gigliotti is now the most effective goal scorer since Palermo left, and he's anxiously waiting on the bench for his chance. Federico Carrizo has recently showed that he can put opponents off balance from the midfield upward. Jose Pedro Fuenzalida is a midfield option, and he's even played defense, which worked out well for the coach.
A thrilling match awaits, and Boca has to make the leap, salvage the year and qualify, once again, for an international championship match.