Mexico's fiercest rivalry returns on Saturday as Club America welcome in Chivas Guadalajara. While America are back near the top of Liga MX, Chivas have plunged toward the bottom of the table and are facing relegation fears again. But can they spring a surprise at the Estadio Azteca? Andrea Canales (America) and Tom Marshall (Chivas) face off ahead of the big one.
This is the first Clasico Nacional for each manager at the helm of their respective team. How will Ignacio Ambriz (America) and Matias Almeyda (Chivas) do?
Andrea Canales: Ambriz is in the unusual position of facing off against more than one coach in this match. Since this is only the second match for Matias Almeyda with Chivas, a certain amount of leeway is allowed, especially given the team's struggles of late. A draw, like the one former coach Jose "Chepo" de la Torre was able to achieve last year, would probably be celebrated as a moral victory.
However, Club America is expected to win. Being the favorite brings added pressure. Even decent results are often ultimately judged as sub-par. Thus, Ambriz will be compared against former Club America coaches. Besides wanting to achieve a winning result, something that Gustavo Matosas was unable to secure while in charge last season, Ambriz also needs a win to fight off the possibility that Club America will seek to replace him with beloved previous coach Miguel Herrera.
To the credit of Ambriz, he has dealt well thus far with the elevated expectations of Club America. The team's attack is more precise and their defense has greatly improved under his direction. With a win against Guadalajara, the Aguilas could claim the top spot in the league table. A stumble against Chivas would be an unexpected regression.
Tom Marshall: In all honesty, Almeyda, who only took over on Sept. 15, has had very little time to implement real changes and Chivas' players should be fired up to play rival Club America, no matter who is on the sideline.
The pragmatic strategy for former Argentina international Almeyda would be to follow former coach Jose Manuel "Chepo" de la Torre's blueprint from the game between the two in the Estadio Azteca last year, when Chivas ground America down and earned a hard-fought 0-0 draw. That would, however, go against Almeyda's natural attacking instinct and possibly even the flair that owner Jorge Vergara was looking for when he hired the Argentine. But the reality, once again, is that Chivas are underdogs fighting relegation and Club America is in the title race. The worry is that if Chivas do open up, Las Aguilas' lethal attack will exploit the space the Guadalajara team leaves.
Should Almeyda stick or twist? The smart move for him would be to err on the side of caution and make sure he doesn't receive a moral-sapping thrashing in his first Clasico Nacional. Ambriz's America more than have the firepower to dish one out.
How have Chivas' relegation struggles impacted this rivalry?
AC: It's not in the nature of Club America's fans, many of whom revel in the unofficial motto of "Odiame Mas" which translates into "Hate Me More", to feel sorry for opponents. Yet that's exactly what it's come to with Chivas fighting for some time now to escape the threat of relegation. The rivalry is greatly diminished when pity is generated instead of excitement and dislike.
These are the only two clubs in Liga MX history to never have departed the country's top division. They are the most popular clubs in the league by far. Most of the country has been raised on their clasico clashes through the years. While Club America continues to sail along, with relegation a practically nonexistent possibility, Chivas has been stalked by that enemy for some time. The match is no longer a tango between two league powerhouses. The relegation struggle of Chivas has taken a lot of the gasoline out of the confrontation.
TM: A lot! This rivalry works on the basis that these teams are the "big two" of Liga MX and are battling it out for titles and glory. Chivas' long, slow decline over the last few years has been difficult to watch and has made the Clasico Nacional one-sided: Chivas haven't won any of the last five between the two and has only scored once in those matches.
That is not really a coincidence: Las Aguilas have been significantly better over the last few years. The occasion has become one for Chivas fans to watch while peeping out from behind the sofa, rather than an exciting chance for the proud all-Mexican side to put one over on the flashy, foreigner-dominated Mexico City team.
Where will this game be won and lost?
AC: Ambriz has improved the team defense of Club America to the point where it seems that opponents might need the referee's help to score, as Tigres had two weeks ago. However, Morelia had chances last weekend against the Aguilas squad that a more wily veteran, like Chivas' Omar Bravo, might have been able to put away.
Club America at full-strength is a formidable opponent, however. Even missing a deadly striker like Dario Benedetto to suspension shouldn't matter much when Oribe Peralta is there to take up the slack. The difference will be made in the attacking third of the field, and that's where Club America has been quite dynamic thus far. Andres Andrade is a young sparkplug who wears defenses down. Darwin Quintero can run all day, even if he's still missing the final component of putting the ball into the net.
TM: From the Chivas perspective, the team must stay compact. Club America boast five players whose primary objective is to attack, as well as Paul Aguilar and Miguel Samudio, who tend to push up much higher than most full-backs.
Las Aguilas will seek to simply overwhelm Chivas and dominate possession of the ball, although it must be pointed out that Ambriz has brought a much greater sense of balance to the team than previous coach Gustavo Matosas. Chivas center-backs Carlos Salcedo and Oswaldo Alanis, who haven't played together much, will likely need to be at their very best, as will goalkeeper Antonio Rodriguez if Chivas are to keep the score down.
But Chivas can't just hold on and keep their fingers crossed. They need to pose a threat to Club America's wingers. David "Avion" Ramirez/Isaac Brizuela and Carlos Fierro will be the keys going forward, seeking to use their lightening pace to get in behind Aguilar and Samudio and run at America's center-backs.
If Chivas can remain compact, leave as little space as possible between the defense and midfield and cause America problems with incisive counters, a surprise could be on the cards, although all those factors would have to come together.
The absence of Benedetto is a boast for Chivas, but it is offset by Marco Fabian missing out. Fabian was on top form on Wednesday against Morelia in Chivas' 2-0 win in the Copa MX.
Prediction
AC: The Club America Express is still rolling merrily along, but Chivas pride might make this clasico tougher than it looks on paper. Still, the ultimate outcome will be a win for the Mexico City team. Club America 1-0 Chivas.
TM: This match pits an average or slightly below-average Liga MX team with a very good one. Although there is relatively little difference in quality between the top and bottom sides in Mexico's first division compared to other leagues around the world, it would take a brave person to put money on the Guadalajara club: Club America 2-0 Chivas.