The early portions of the European soccer season is rife with interruptions: three international breaks in the first three months, in fact. But with the latest round of World Cup qualifiers in the books, we actually get a sustained look at the club ranks, as the next time players join their national teams will be in late January. The Champions League knockout rounds will be set, and the Premier League season will be 60 percent over.
Therefore, it's fair to say that a lot of any given league's race will be defined over the next two months.
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Last year at this time, Manchester City made its move. After just three wins in their first eight matches, City unleashed a 19-match unbeaten streak beginning on Nov. 28, going from 14th place to 14 points up in first by the time they lost again in early March.
This year, Pep Guardiola's squad is only three points back, and they've already played the teams ranked first, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh. Aside from a Nov. 28 visit from West Ham, everyone else they will play from now until 2022 is eighth place or worse. They've suffered a couple of frustrating glitches -- a 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace, a 0-0 draw with Southampton -- but aren't suffering with nearly as many issues as they were this time last season.
Despite Chelsea's lovely early run and first-place status -- and despite the fact that they're Chelsea, defending Champions League winners -- City's odds of winning the Premier League have actually gone up since the start of the season. FiveThirtyEight gave them a 40% chance of winning in early August, but now City's odds are up to 49%. Caesars Sportsbook lists their title odds at -125, equivalent to a 56% chance. Liverpool and Chelsea have seen their odds increase, too -- the change in odds has as much to do with Manchester United's lack of quality as anything else -- but the front-runner remains obvious, and it's the club that's won three of the last four titles.
As much as it feels things haven't changed in this regard, it's still worth looking into what has changed for City of late. They remain the surest thing in English football at the moment, but they've undergone a couple of subtle shifts through the years, and they still have some personnel questions to answer moving forward.
First, let's talk about the attack.
Key Man City attacking stats, last four seasons:
2018-19: 2.5 goals per match (first in the EPL), 2.5 xG per match (first), 0.21 shots per possession (first), 0.14 xG per shot (third)
2019-20: 2.7 goals (first), 2.8 xG (first), 0.23 shots per possession (first), 0.14 xG per shot (second)
2020-21: 2.2 goals (first), 2.1 xG (first), 0.19 shots per possession (first), 0.13 xG per shot (third)
2021-22 to date: 2.0 goals (fourth), 2.2 xG (second), 0.21 shots per possession (first), 0.13 xG per shot (fifth)
Between injuries and a general, Guardiola-esque desire to tweak and create a uniquely perfect lineup for each match, there has been quite a bit of shuffling of personnel so far, especially up front. Among attackers, only Gabriel Jesus and star summer signing Jack Grealish have played more than 60% of available minutes in league play, while Phil Foden (56%), Raheem Sterling (38%), Ferran Torres (31%) and Riyad Mahrez (26%) have all gotten runs. Torres is currently out with a foot injury.
Everyone in this sextet has produced when given the opportunity -- 11 goals and 68 chances created (10 assists) between them -- and midfielder Bernardo Silva scored as a de facto centre-forward against Manchester United. But while City remains one of the most productive teams in the league, they aren't the most productive. They are fourth in goals scored, behind not only Liverpool (2.8 goals per match) and Chelsea (2.5), but also West Ham United (2.1).
Liverpool is getting torrid production from Mo Salah at the moment, and Chelsea spent big to add forward Romelu Lukaku this past summer. All three of these clubs are producing higher goal totals than xG numbers (which is part luck but very much part skill as well), while City has not matched its xG totals to date.
City only made one of the two huge acquisitions it intended to make this offseason. They brought Grealish over from Aston Villa, and while the perceptions seem to be that he has been slow to grow into his new role, he's produced at a mostly Grealish-like level: 3.2 chances created per 90 (he averaged 3.4 with Villa last season) and 0.24 expected assists, or xA, per 90 (0.27 last year). He's scored only once on 16 shots, but has helped to fill the creative void that existed while midfielder Kevin De Bruyne was working through a series of injuries, and he's forming a ferocious partnership with increasingly brilliant fullback Joao Cancelo on the left side of the attack.
In the meantime, the acquisition they didn't make -- that of Harry Kane, who remained at Tottenham Hotspur despite what was rumored to be a huge transfer bid (and Kane's own professed desire to leave) -- looms large. With City already light on centre-forwards (compared to its depth elsewhere, at least) and Sergio Aguero aging out of the club's plans, they opted not to settle for a backup plan up front when the Kane pursuit fell through. They will likely resume their Kane efforts in the January transfer window, but if they remain unsuccessful, it will be interesting to see if they indeed look elsewhere or hold out until summer.
If De Bruyne, Foden & Co. find their top form with Grealish doing what he does, it's clear this attack could find another gear or two with just the players already in the squad. But if scoring still lacks a hair by January and Kane remains in North London, will they look for reinforcements?
Finishing aside, one of the most interesting shifts has come in the pressure department
As in, City's generating less of it.
Key Manchester City pressure stats, last four seasons:
2018-19: 10.0 passes allowed per defensive action (first), 8.1 possessions per match starting in the attacking third (second)
2019-20: 10.1 PPDA (third), 9.0 possessions starting in the attacking third (third)
2020-21: 11.5 PPDA (sixth), 8.4 possessions starting in the attacking third (second)
2021-22: 11.9 PPDA (seventh), 6.7 possessions starting in the attacking third (ninth)
Since averaging 8.3 PPDA -- a go-to stat for general pressure and defensive intensity levels -- in 2017-18, their first title run under Guardiola, City has allowed this number to slip a bit with each progressive season, even while still winning at a mostly high level.
>The bones of the Guardiola system remain in place -- they've ranked first in passes per possession, possession rate, carries and both touches and possessions ending in the attacking third for each of the seasons in question -- but City has sacrificed a little bit of defensive intensity.
There could be a couple of different reasons for this. First, it could simply be a strategic shift intended to bring about better defensive structure. The Premier League is loaded with good managers and talent good enough to execute said managers' plans. They have adjusted to counter some of City's tendencies, and already proved they could slice the Sky Blues up in counter-attacks in 2019-20, so Guardiola has come up with this as a counter to the counter.