The next time the Champions League becomes the dominant topic in soccer, we will be approaching Valentine's Day. An entire World Cup will have come and gone. We'll have spent many thousands of words talking about player wear and tear, particularly for players on the four teams that will have played seven matches in Qatar.
There is always a winter gap between the Champions League group stage and knockout rounds, but this one is going to feel immense. So before we wave a brief goodbye to the world's biggest club competition, let's take a valedictory look at what we just saw and what we'll see when everything picks up again.
As far as group stages go, this one was pretty noteworthy. Napoli romped over supposed group favorites Liverpool and Ajax by a combined 14-4 over three matches, quickly clinching top spot in Group A. Club Brugge were nearly as exciting and creative in winning their first three matches and quickly clinching advancement.
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LaLiga crashed and burned, with three of its four teams failing to advance -- including not only Atletico Madrid but also Barcelona, who laid down huge chunks of future revenue to upgrade their team and contend again. In solidarity with their Super League brethren, Juventus fell apart as well.
Europa League champions Eintracht Frankfurt surprisingly advanced to the knockouts, taking each of their last two matches with winning goals from the electric Randal Kolo Muani. Chelsea fired Thomas Tuchel, engineer of their 2021 title, after a meek loss to Dinamo Zagreb in matchday one. Shakhtar Donetsk, without a home and without most of the stars from recent Europa League runs, had a chance to reach the last 16 with a win over RB Leipzig, only to lose 4-0 and finish third in the group. Celtic and Rangers combined to do very little damage but provided the tournament with some electric atmospheres at Celtic Park and Ibrox Stadium.
And then we were left with 16. The squads will change, form will evolve and injuries will shift expectations by the time we see these teams square off. But let's rank teams as they currently stand after two grueling months. If UEFA were to decide, "You know what? Let's just keep things rolling! The round of 16 starts next week!" who would the favorites be?
Tier 4: The rank outsiders
These three teams have achieved a good amount by getting here. They probably aren't equipped for a long stay in the knockout rounds.
16. Club Brugge
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: <1%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +12500 (implied odds: 1%)
Best characteristic in group play: Extreme creativity
This tournament exposes you to a number of different exciting players and styles, and Brugge's impossibly young attack -- each of their five Champions League goal scorers are between 17 and 23 years old -- was at its most energetic and creative in their 4-0 romp against Porto on Sept. 13. That win, plus their matchday three victory over Atletico Madrid, prompted their eventual advancement to the knockouts, the furthest they've gone in Europe's top competition since reaching the round of 16 in 1989. (They needed only one win to reach said round that year.)
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The goals quickly dried up -- they were outscored 4-2 over the final four matches -- as did their ability to create shots at any volume. They finished with the fourth-fewest shots per possession in the tournament. But they also finished fifth in xG per shot. Anything they created was fun and worthwhile.
Red flag: Simon Mignolet probably won't continue to stand on his head
The wily veteran has been incredible in the tournament, stopping 88% of shots on goal and somehow keeping five clean sheets. Porto's 4-0 revenge win on Oct. 26 was the only time something got through. He was unbelievable, and he allowed Brugge to advance despite opponents averaging more than twice as many shots per possession. As incredible as it would be for both Brugge's and Mignolet's runs to continue, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that it won't.
15. Eintracht Frankfurt
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: <1%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +10000 (implied odds: 1%)
Best characteristic in group play: They don't let you shoot
You cannot beat Eintracht Frankfurt with elimination on the line. Die Adler took down Real Betis, Barcelona, West Ham United and Rangers on the way to last year's Europa League title, and after laboring through four group stage matches, they needed two wins to advance... so they got two wins, beating both Marseille and Sporting by 2-1 scores.
After a loose first match with Sporting, they allowed zero or one goal in four of five matches, and their shot prevention averages put them in great company. Only four teams allowed 0.09 shots or fewer per possession in group play: Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Eintracht. They turned games into frantic and stingy affairs and navigated the waters better than opponents thanks to sturdy defense and timely creative contributions from Randal Kolo Muani, Daichi Kamada and the delightful Jesper Lindstrom.
Red flag: They can't retain the ball
Here's some less impressive company. Only four teams averaged 4.2 or fewer passes per possession: Rangers, Viktoria Plzen, Salzburg and Eintracht. Only one of those teams advanced. Eintracht had their aggressive moments, but possession was a problem. That's not going to stop in the knockout rounds.
14. AC Milan
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +5000 (implied odds: 2%)
Best characteristic in group play: A lack of weaknesses
I'll be honest: Milan's group stage stats really don't stand out at all. They were neither good nor bad -- in attack, they were 18th in shots per possession and 14th in xG per shot; in defense, they were 15th in shots allowed per possession and eighth in xG allowed per shot. Their goal differential was 10th-best, their xG differential 13th-best. They were one of the 16 best teams in this tournament and therefore advanced.
They were also capable of exploiting enough weaknesses against FC Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb that they advanced despite getting swept by Chelsea. Stars like Olivier Giroud (four goals and two assists) and Rafael Leao (one goal and two assists from 10 chances created) played well, and... I wish I had something more interesting to say.
Red flag: No great Plan B
With the somewhat old-school (or at least old) Giroud up front, Milan kept things simple, attempting an above-average number of crosses and completing a large percentage of them (30%, fourth-best). And while 22% of their carries were deemed as progressive (second-most), opponents also started 43% of their possessions in the middle third, suggesting things went awry a decent amount there.
In all, Milan had certain ways of scoring and certain ways of advancing the ball, and the backup plans weren't there. They were the definition of an above-average team in the group stage.
Tier 3: Catch the excitement while you still can
The ceiling for these teams is likely the quarterfinals, but they are exciting teams all the same.
13. FC Porto
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 3%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +12500 (implied odds: 1%)
Best characteristic in group play: All their shots were high-quality shots
Sergio Conceicao's squad suffered through a dismal early-season stretch, dropping too many points in league play and losing their first two Champions League matches, including the 4-0 home stinker to Club Brugge. But they brought the goods when it mattered in group play, winning their last four matches by a combined 11-1 to finish first in a strange Group B.
Porto averaged 0.15 xG per shot (second-best), and in terms of post-shot xG value for shots on target, their average was second-best behind only Napoli. Veteran attacker Mehdi Taremi attempted seven shots of 0.2 xG or higher (including two penalties) and put five of them in the net.
Red flag: All opponents' shots were high-quality shots
Granted, much of the damage was done in their first two matches, but their defensive averages are alarming: They allowed a decent 0.12 shots per possession (ninth), but opponents averaged 0.14 xG per shot (29th). Thirteen percent of opponents' shots were worth 0.3 xG; only Barcelona allowed a higher percentage. Opponents tested the hell out of goalkeeper Diogo Costa, and there are far too many good attacks in the knockout rounds to get away with that.
12. Borussia Dortmund
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +4500 (implied odds: 2%)
Best characteristic in group play: Defensive resilience (for once)
It's been an odd first season for Edin Terzic in charge of BVB. Without Erling Haaland, and with an attack remodeled in part around emergency signing Anthony Modeste, this attack- and possession-hungry team has had to adapt a little bit. They're still dominating possession in reasonably flawed fashion during Bundesliga play, but they easily advanced from Group G with defense.
Despite playing a pair of matches against Manchester City, BVB ranked seventh in xG per shot allowed and, perhaps most impressively, allowed zero transition goals. Their overall possession rate was just 45% -- a departure from 56% in league play -- and they made it work, hammering Copenhagen at home, taking four points from Sevilla and not only drawing with City once but nearly doing it twice.
Red flag: Can they flip the 'be assertive' switch back? Should they?
Adaptability is great, but BVB has been plodding along without a clear identity, and one way or the other, you figure Terzic will need to settle in on something in the months ahead. Or he might still be trying to figure it out when the round of 16 rolls around. That doesn't seem like a great thing for their chances of advancing further in this tournament.
11. RB Leipzig
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +7500 (implied odds: 1%)
Best characteristic in group play: Great attackers attacking
An early-season funk nearly derailed RBL's hopes of both advancing in the Champions League and qualifying for the next one. But in two months in charge, new manager Marco Rose has at least fixed the former thus far. They won their last four group stage matches, handing Real Madrid their first loss of the season in the process.
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In their last four CL matches, Christopher Nkunku, Timo Werner, Andre Silva and Dominik Szoboszlai combined for nine goals and five assists among 33 chances created. Full-backs David Raum and Mohamed Simakan provide assistance in attack (Simakan had three assists), but with Xaver Schlager providing cover for the center-backs, RBL have at least somewhat minimized their defensive breakdowns.
Rose didn't reinvent the wheel, but he has thus far given the good version of RBL more of an opportunity to show itself.
Red flag: They can still make your attackers great, too
Even with Rose in charge for two-thirds of the group stage and things going relatively well, RBL gave opponents too many good looks. Opponents attempted 60% of their shots inside the box (second-most), and 12% of their shots were worth at least 0.3 xG (seventh-most). This appears to be the typical RBL team in all ways good and bad.
10. Inter Milan
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 2%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +4000 (implied odds: 2%)
Best characteristic in group play: Their shots were better than your shots
Despite two-thirds of their group stage matches coming against either Bayern or Barcelona, Inter averaged a healthy 0.12 xG per shot (10th out of 32), with 59% of their shots coming from inside the box (third). Opponents? They averaged 0.08 xG per shot with 41% of shots in the box -- both were the fewest. And did I mention they played Bayern and Barcelona twice?
Simone Inzaghi's Nerazzurri ceded both possession (47% possession rate) and control of the pitch (40% of overall touches in the attacking third) but created most of a given match's good opportunities, often through transition: They scored five goals in what I define as transition possessions -- possessions starting outside of the attacking third and lasting 20 or fewer seconds -- and allowed none.
Red flag: Passivity
Ceding the field to open up transition opportunities is a strategy as old as the sport itself, and plenty of teams have lifted plenty of trophies because of it. But considering whom Inter would have to beat to make a deep run in the spring, the idea of giving opponents more progressive carries and progressive passes and starting more possessions in the attacking and middle thirds feels like a dicey proposition, especially considering the age of the squad -- nine of the 16 players logging more than 150 Champions League minutes are 28 or older.
9. Tottenham Hotspur
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 3%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1600 (implied odds: 6%)
Best characteristic in group play: They bogged teams down in midfield
A finishing slump of sorts nearly derailed Spurs' advancement hopes -- Harry Kane attempted 17 shots worth 3.2 xG but scored only once in six matches -- but they not only survived but also won their group thanks to a late 2-1 win over Marseille on Tuesday. They averaged just 1.3 goals per match (17th), but their xG differential (+0.6 per match) was 10th-best in the group stage.
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The biggest thing Spurs had going for them: They were dominant in midfield. They began 45% of their possessions in the middle third (third-most), preventing teams from advancing into attacking areas and therefore commanding 59% of the overall touches in the box. Midfielders Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Rodrigo Bentancur, with help from defender Eric Dier, were too much for Marseille, Eintracht Frankfurt and Sporting CP. We'll see if that remains the case against better opposition.
Red flag: Dreadful finishing
You could almost look at it as a good thing that they advanced with such minimal contribution from Kane, but they will need the A+ version of Kane to advance in the spring. And with Kane captaining one of the World Cup favorites (albeit an English team mired in a slump of late), he could be adding quite a few matches to his legs in the coming weeks.
Tier 2: Outside picks to win it all
These five teams did enough to advance comfortably despite some lapses (and, in one case, a firing), and, aside from perhaps Benfica, if any of them catch fire in spring and roll to the title, it wouldn't be particularly surprising.
8. Benfica
Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: 3%
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +5000 (implied odds: 2%)
Best characteristic in group play: Relentless positivity
Last seen leading a swashbuckling PSV Eindhoven team to the Europa League quarterfinals and a near title in the Eredivisie, Roger Schmidt took over a Benfica team suddenly looking for an identity in a much more technical and attack-unfriendly league.
Thus far, it has worked out beautifully. Not only are Benfica unbeaten and distancing themselves in the league race but they were also PSG's equal in group play, drawing with the French giants twice, matching from an xG perspective and winning Group H on tiebreakers. They ranked fourth in xG per shot and fifth in percentage of shots worth 0.3 xG or more. They attempted far more solo and transition possessions than most of the other top teams here, and, more generally, they just tried stuff. A lot of it worked.