With a huge eight-game round completed, here is week 4 of our NBL Player Power Rankings. For a primer on our unscientific methodology, we detail it in last season's edition.
There is not much movement inside the top 20, but...
Bubbling under...
At 1-6, the Hawks have hit an interesting juncture and questions need to be asked surrounding what exactly their endgame is for the season. What does being known as a development club mean exactly?
At the centre of all this is LaMelo Ball. Is this too much too soon? Reps in a vacuum is meaningless - they only matter if you are drilling in good habits.
Are the Hawks interested in being competitive? Or is this season all about developing LaMelo Ball into a well-rounded player?
Of course, these outcomes are not mutually exclusive - how the Hawks map out a course that straddles this line will be interesting.
RJ Hampton on the other hand? Now there is something truly bubbling. Not all lessons require the ball in one's hands. There is a commitment towards the hard stuff, in chasing through screens, and hustling into position.
Through Hampton's application towards the less fun side of basketball, he will learn what it takes to win, carve out value and impact a game, without the ball.
In limited opportunities, he is attacking the paint with gusto when he sees an opening, leading to shots at the rim or causing the defence to scramble. He is being impactful with those touches.
Another (technically) Next Star, Didi Louzada, is also hovering - he too has been impactful in his minutes.
Corey Webster bludgeoned United for 11 first-quarter points on Saturday, and ultimately finished with 17 points on 16 shots - he did that against the Hawks a few nights earlier. Webster can shoot, but he is not the most efficient cat.
Eric Griffin is settling into that third wheel nicely at the 36ers. Across the weekend, he had 13 points against the Taipans, eight rebounds and four blocked shots. Against the Phoenix, he finished with 14 points, eight rebounds, two blocks and a running battle with Mitch Creek.
Damian Martin was the maw of the Perth Wildcats defence in their mauling of the South East Melbourne Phoenix on Friday night. Across two games in round 4, Martin averaged seven rebounds and five assists.
Jae'Sean Tate is a beast.
Watch a Kings possession - offensive or defensive - and you will see a barrel-chested, thick-set, undersized big ping from location to location in a whir of activity.
In one second-quarter sequence against the Bullets over the weekend, he worked to deny Lamar Patterson far up the court. The ball swung to Jason Cadee who took the outside shot from the corner. Instead of this being job accomplished, Tate raced back to snatch the defensive rebound before starting transition himself.
Via jordanmcnbl.com, he is shooting 78.3 percent in the restricted area against bigger humans - the league average mark is 63 percent.
There is something unquantifiable with the energy and a will that Tate brings. He is right there on the cusp of the top 20 - I feel woozy not including him somehow. Soon, young fella!
20. Scotty Hopson (New Zealand Breakers)
Last week: 20
Hopson's ability to score is unquestioned. His size and supreme athleticism affords him precious airspace - and the resultant time - to get any shot he wants to take.
Against the Hawks, he finished with 17 points (3-of-4 from deep) and 10 rebounds. Against United, Hopson finished with 17 points again (6-of-13 from the field) and seven rebounds.
That same athleticism allows Hopson to flash moments on the defensive end; he plucked a lazy cross-court fling from Melo Trimble in the second quarter on Thursday night to gift a transition bucket for Tom Abercrombie.
Still, he is far from a lockdown defender, nor a particularly disruptive presence - that puts a ceiling on his ability to impact games.
19. Cameron Oliver (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 19
Oliver registered a beastly stat line of 21 points (8-of-9 shooting), eight rebounds, four assists and two blocks against the 36ers - he swatted those Harry Froling and Daniel Johnson shots with contempt.
Against United, Oliver had 17 points and 11 rebounds. No one can stop Shawn Long one-on-one, but he was stout.
Oliver's true shooting increased after the round to 67.7 percent, via Spatialjam.com. He is now at 40 percent from downtown for the season; he is cramming anything close to the rim.
His versatility has allowed Mike Kelly to pair him at times on the court with Nate Jawai for a physical frontline.
18. D.J. Newbill (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 18
Against Adelaide, he finished with an efficient 18 points from eight shot attempts; his four assists were offset by three turnovers.
Still, it was a welcome change towards assertiveness. At times, he just put his head down, and charged his way to the basket, culminating in 10 free throw attempts.
The Taipans need a more consistently aggressive Newbill. He is one of the best shooters in this league; Newbill is a bull when he attacks the basket.
On Monday night, Newbill struggled from the field against United, but he maintained that aggression from the field (16 field goal attempts) in their victory, whilst defending at his usual high level.
17. Jerome Randle (Adelaide 36ers)
Last week: 17
Against the Taipans, Randle crossed his way to 22 points (9-of-17 shooting). Against the Phoenix, Randle struggled to 11 points (5-of-15 from the field). His four assists were marred by five turnovers.
Randle is chugging along, but the early numbers reaffirm the eye test - he is forcing it less and putting an emphasis on outside shooting.
The usual caveat of early days applies: To date, via Spatialjam.com, Randle's usage rate has fallen, but his three-point rate has surged to 34.8 percent. His free throw rate has also plummeted to 14.5 percent.
Watch this space, particularly as the 36ers embark on a brutal stretch that includes the Sydney Kings (home), followed by Melbourne United (away), Perth Wildcats (home) and South East Melbourne Phoenix (away).
16. Mitch McCarron (Melbourne United)
Last week: 15
With about four minutes left in the second quarter, guarded by Brandon Ashley, McCarron fed the ball to Shawn Long in the post. Long, sensing Ashley stunting towards him, promptly delivered the ball back to his semi-open teammate.
Shoot it, Mitch!
Instead, McCarron passed to Goulding who missed a deep, contested three. McCarron is currently shoot the three-ball at 55.6 percent. Sometimes you wish he would just let it rip, or attack off the bounce with more gusto.
Via jordanmcnbal.com, his plus-minus differential per 36 minutes is plus-20.3. He is holding United together.
In their win over the Breakers, McCarron finished with a line of eight points, eight rebounds, seven assists, two steals and one block. He is literally doing everything.
McCarron was most certainly aggressive from the outset on Monday night against the Taipans, jacking up four shots already in the first quarter, and six in the half - that is sometimes his game total.
He finished with 17 points (6-of-12 shooting), eight rebounds, three assists and two steals.
15. Scott Machado (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 16
Against the 36ers, Machado had nine assists and just a single turnover, along with 14 points and four rebounds.
Machado still sports the highest assist rate in the league, per Spatialjam.com. Heading into round 4, he also had the turnover ratio among minutes-heavy point guards, accounting for over a quarter of team miscues whilst on the court. That figure has dropped slightly, but it is also understandable considering the playmaking load he is carrying.
Machado's control of the offence was absolute in the Taipans win over United, finishing with 14 points (6-of-14 from the field), eight rebounds, eight assists and two steals (and three turnovers).
14. Aaron Brooks (Illawarra Hawks)
Last week: 14
Before we start, we wish Aaron Brooks all the best with his health and recovery. He was a beastly scorer in his time in the league - a blur to the basket who could not be contained. He will move out of this list next week.
Brooks' tenure in the league has been a tale of two halves - the sublime blending in with the baffling.
As an example, against the Breakers he drew two and-1 fouls in the first half. That was followed by an unsportsmanlike foul to end the first half.
Brooks would score an efficient 19 points (6-of-12) for the game, but seemed to be frozen out of the offence as LaMelo Ball danced away.
Against the Wildcats, he struggled to seven points (3-of-10 shooting), but did have six assists before that unfortunate injury.
13. Daniel Johnson (Adelaide 36ers)
Last week: 13
Johnson uncorked his entire repertoire over the weekend - shoulder shimmies, tip-ins, banked mid-rangers from 45 degrees, and flips from the block.
In the first quarter against Cairns on Friday night, Johnson busted out a pass fake that fooled both DJ Newbill and Cam Oliver, before nonchalantly draining the suddenly open midrange look.
Johnson attacked Oliver throughout the night, and ambled his way to 19 points and four rebounds. Against the Phoenix, 20 points (8-of-16) and 13 rebounds; all of his attempts were inside the arc.
Unsurprisingly, Johnson is amongst the league leaders in post-up volume. Via play type data at jordanmcnbl.com, Johnson has had 28 post up plays, scoring at 0.94 points per possession. That hovers just a tick above league average.
12. Nathan Sobey (Brisbane Bullets)
Last week: 12
After a slow start, Nathan Sobey finished with 21 points against the Kings (8-of-17 overall), but only 2-of-6 from deep. That is right on his season average for both makes and attempts from deep.
For the season, his three-point shooting has normalised or regressed - depending on where you stand - to 33 percent.
Via jordanmcnbl.com, his shooting numbers in the lane are slightly below his level from last year (60 percent in the restricted area, and 37.5 percent in the non-restricted area).
Again, it is early in the season, but it is important to note that the numbers on Spatialjam.com show marked declines for Sobey compared to last season across multiple areas, including true shooting, assist rate, steal rate and free throw rate.
His steal rate ranks amongst the lowest in the league - not guards, but THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. Think about that.
His usage and three-point rate have spiked. Worth monitoring.
11. Chris Goulding (Melbourne United)
Last week: 11
Goulding scored 24 points (8-of-17 from the field) against the Breakers and flung up 13 three-point attempts, making five.
Goulding and Webster may appear as similar players, but that comparison only holds in true in that they like to shoot the ball, and defence is not a forte. Goulding sports far greater efficiency - his shot profile veers wildly towards the three-point arc, whilst Webster enjoys a mid-range shot or three.
In spite of his brick-fest against the Taipans, Goulding is still shooting the three-ball at 38.6 percent for the season.
10. Melo Trimble (Melbourne United)
Last week: 10
Tempering the initial Breaker onslaught, Trimble scored 17 points in the first half, including a perfect 3-of-3 from deep. He finished with 24 points, five rebounds and six assists (offset by four turnovers).
He also drew a charge on Jarrad Weeks - yay, for defensive progress!
Trimble finished with 21 points, four rebounds and three assists against the Taipans, but United still lost.
9. Terrico White (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 9
White continues his penchant for picking his moments - in that sense, he is the perfect perimeter complement to Bryce Cotton.
Terrico White hit three triples in the first half against the Phoenix, and finished the night with 17 points (4-of-6 from deep).
Against the Hawks, he struggled from the field (14 points from 5-of-13 shooting), but hit the dagger three-pointer to make it 78-74 against the Hawks.
The only quibble is that White appears to still drift on the defensive end - like Hopson, he has the athletic gifts to wreak havoc.
It is unclear if he realises that defensive rebounding and securing possession is a good thing. Via Spatialjam.com, in the first four games of the season, White sported an anaemic seven percent - SEVEN PERCENT - defensive rebound rate. That is less than half the rate of his wing peers.
I am not sure if there has ever been a lower rate for a minutes-heavy player who happens to be ultra-athletic.
8. Shawn Long (Melbourne United)
Last week: 8
United's team-wide futility on defence was exemplified as they broke out the zone midway through the second quarter against the Breakers - they immediately made a run.
Long was on the bench.
Long was by no means the lone culprit as United allowed a free pass for any Breaker to saunter into the lane for their game-long layup drill. There is a team-wide struggle to scramble and rotate with any consistency. There are some baffling communication breakdowns.
We won't rehash Long's struggles to consistently navigate this terrain - to sew doubt in those pockets of space.
Sometimes he is in the vicinity, but he might as well not be as he stares, statuesque, as the action unfolds. Put a hand up. Make yourself visible. He did improve in the second half against the Breakers.
What he lacks on the defensive end, he makes up for on the offensive end with brute power and shooting touch - he is United's get-out-jail-free card in the half-court.
For the round, he had 27 points and 11 rebounds against the Breakers; and 21 points, 18 rebounds and two blocks against the Taipans.
There is no other centre who plays with such physical fury. I am convinced he wants to tear the basket down.
7. Lamar Patterson (Brisbane Bullets)
Last week: 6
Patterson finished with 20 points (8-of-17) and three assists against the Kings. It is unclear what more he can do to lift a confusing Bullets outfit.
Patterson is shooting 61.9 percent from midrange, per jordanmcnbl.com, which is bonkers, and on pace to shatter his mark of 47.9 percent from last season. He will also obliterate his attempts from that range from last season in a matter of weeks.
It is almost as though Patterson has eschewed analytics - he is redistributing his shot profile to inside the arc.
6. John Roberson (South East Melbourne Phoenix)
Last week: 7
Amidst the carnage of a 110-79 loss at RAC Arena, was the crucial confrontation of Roberson against the greatest individual defender of an NBL generation in Damian Martin. Martin also had help.
Whenever Roberson called for a screen, the Wildcats blitzed him. When he went solo, Martin was glued to his left hip, denying him the ball. When he was funnelled him inside the arc, multiple Wildcats lurched to help and then recover to their mark with a seething energy.
Roberson would finally make his first outside shot in the final quarter and struggle to finish with eight points (only 7 shot attempts) and three assists.
Roberson's struggles were a culmination of Perth's defence, and missing some looks that he has been draining. In one instance, he air-balled a rushed, deep look midway through the third quarter, as though he was caught off-guard by how open he was.
He rebounded against the 36ers with 24 points (6-of-10 from downtown), four rebounds, seven assists and two steals.
The 36ers also focused on forcing the ball out of Roberson's hands, junking up their defence. When they did play man defence, they played up on him, forcing him to drive inside the arc into the help. From there, it seemed Roberson was reluctant to try his hand in the lane.
On one of his forays to the basket, his shot was annihilated by Eric Griffin. He was 1-of-5 from inside the arc.
Via play type data at jordanmcnbl.com, Roberson had zero - ZERO - shots in the restricted area after four games, which is an extraordinary mark when you compare that figure to other top scoring guards. Casper Ware had 23 such attempts; Trimble had 18; and Cotton had 12.
Perhaps that figure not only demonstrates Roberson's outside proficiency, but also how little he was tested when being forced into the trees. He now has two attempts (both misses).
Expect more teams to force him inside the arc.
5. Nick Kay (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 5
It is unclear if Nick Kay lifts his knees - does he run? Or does he perform a manic shuffle?
Yet he is everywhere; first to loose balls; first to run down the court in transition for an early seal. Kay bum-rushed his way to 12 points and 13 rebounds (six of them offensive) against the Phoenix.
In one sequence, he snuffed a Creek floater before racing down the court, sealing Creek and turning for the layup.
When the Cats were under rebounding siege against the Hawks, Kay barged his way into the fray. He finished with 15 points, seven rebounds, three assists and two blocks, including two huge three-pointers - one from the left wing, and one from above the break - that gave the Wildcats an eight-point lead with three minutes remaining.
He is the personification of the oft-used label of winning plays.
4. Andrew Bogut (Sydney Kings)
Last week: 4
Bogut finished with 12 points, 11 rebounds and four assists before his ejection against the Bullets, anchoring the defence and offence.
We know that he sits back on defence and allows - almost goads - enemy shooters to take those midrange looks. The results for the season suggest that it is working.
According to play type data via jordanmcnbl.com, the Kings allow far and away the highest frequency of shots for the ball-handler out of the pick-and-roll. Across their five games to date, those shots have accounted for almost a quarter of their opponents' looks and yielded 0.83 points per possession. The league average is 0.9 points per possession.
Bogut's nine post-up attempts thus far this season have yielded 1.07 points per possession, which is a far higher mark than Daniel Johnson.
That will not become a bedrock of the Kings' offence, but it is interesting, nonetheless.
3. Casper Ware (Sydney Kings)
Last week: 3
Ware splashed 12 points in the first quarter against the Bullets, and it seemed that his shooting struggles for the season would be relegate to a hazy memory. He would finish with 17 points (7-of-17 from the field) and five assists.
Instead, he finished 3-of-10 from three-point range as the Kings blew out the game. For the season, he is 10-of-47 (21 percent) - that is not a typo.
We mentioned last week that Ware's play will never be solely assessed via the prism of scoring efficiency - his stout defence is as much a part of who he is as a player. He is a defensive beast.
Like the other top scoring guards, Ware will always take high degree of difficulty shots. He also has a track record of making big shots. Yet even so, that mark from deep should start to elicit some eye emojis.
Still, it is a nagging concern, and one which stops him from leapfrogging the dude below (despite a quiet round).
2. Mitch Creek (South East Melbourne Phoenix)
Last week: 2
Like the rest of his teammates, Creek was swallowed up by the electric Wildcats eager to atone for their RAC debacle a week ago.
Creek would finish with only nine points and three rebounds (4-of-11 overall) as they struggled to match their opponent's intensity. In one second-quarter sequence, Jesse Wagstaff drove past him for an and-one layup after a botched close out.
On Sunday, against his former team, he scored 18 points on 16 shots; he also had five rebounds, two assists, two steals and one block.
"They made me their marquee player for a reason," Creek told ESPN, in a chat about his season with the Phoenix. "In Adelaide in previous years, I've never been that guy to come out and shoot 15-plus shots a game. And now I am."
Creek spoke about how Simon Mitchell wanted him to be more aggressive, to create and assert himself on both ends of the court.
On Sunday, the 36ers allowed Creek a huge runway, sagging off him markedly, and forming a wall around the rim.
The idea was essentially to foist a decision upon Creek - shoot the open outside shot - a perceived weakness - or force the ball inside and ram against the brick wall. At this stage, the defence is still happy to play the odds.
"Shooting the ball doesn't mean you have to shoot threes," said Creek. "Shooting the ball means you take better, more efficient shots."
Interestingly, he launched seven three-point attempts for the game and made two, both in the third quarter. He is now at 7-of-22 (31.8 percent), which is workable - still, not a mark teams will fear.
Creek discussed his mindset when teams openly invite him to launch from deep in the hopes of stalling his rim-runs, and the looks that trickle down to his teammates.
"It's about 'were you open'?" he said. "Were you in rhythm? What's the time? What's the score? What's the last 5 possessions been? What quarter are we in? Are guys fatigued? Are guys in foul trouble? All that goes through my mind so quickly and I have to make an instant decision. And I try and make the correct decision."
Creek is so good in this league that he can still be a top-5 player without a reliable outside jumper. He can physically barge his way through the strictures of an enemy defensive scheme.
1. Bryce Cotton (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 1
Cotton keyed the first half onslaught against the South East Melbourne Phoenix.
He finished with 16 points (3-of-4 from deep), eight assists, four rebounds, and drew yet another shooting foul from behind the arc, this time against Ben Madgen in that tone-setting first quarter.
After a quiet first half against the Hawks, Cotton exploded in the third quarter, including yet another four-point play - this time against Aaron Brooks.
Seriously, can we just pencil in at least one of these per game now? If so, do the Wildcats start every game 4-0? His ability to draw fouls beyond the arc is peerless.
Cotton's 21 points on 21 shots (including 3-of-11 from three-point range) was hardly efficient, but he once again shouldered the heavy burden when it mattered.
Sometimes there's not much to say except to marvel and gawk at his weekly consistency and outrageous shot-making.
Stay tuned for next week's edition.