There's no set date yet for the new NBL season to start, but with exhibition games starting in November, and free agency heading into its final burst, ESPN's Olgun Uluc and Warren Yiu have cast their eye over the hectic offseason.
Which team's won out? Which teams have it all to prove? What are the most interesting deals so far?
Olgun and Warren give out their impressions, with the obvious caveat that things can change very quickly in this league.
1. Who are the biggest winners of free agency?
Warren Yiu: It has to be The Hawks, right? New owners. New name. A rejiggered roster, and a new coach.
Brian Goorjian brings instant credibility to a franchise that was placed in voluntary administration earlier this year, and a legitimate level of basketball interest to a club, an off-season removed from the LaMelo Ball circus.
Goorjian has obvious championship pedigree, but are the Hawks a title contender? That's an impossible question to answer considering we don't know how their import backcourt will mesh. Deng Adel and Cam Bairstow are big names that should also raise interest.
Elsewhere, the New Zealand Breakers might be the only side in the league who have been able to approximate the same talent level as last season, a remarkable end result despite having one less import. Now which Lamar Patterson shows up to start the season?
Olgun Uluc: Let's put aside decision-making among teams, if only for a moment, to point out that the NBL had five players opt out of their respective contracts, and were able to keep four of them on board. Whether it's because of the impression the NBL left on those players, bigger deals, or Europe's volatility, the league has to be happy to not have lost several key players.
Now, onto actual player movement: the New Zealand Breakers really did put together an impressive free agency, so I'd consider them the big winners at this point. You have every reason to trust how a team hits the floor when it's full of proven assets, and that's what Matt Walsh did with the Breakers over the off-season.
The team brought in Corey Webster's brother, Tai, who has shown his worth at a higher level, at Galatasaray; Colton Iverson, a EuroLeague veteran; and Lamar Patterson, who's been one of the NBL's premier scorers for years. Throw in some of the Breakers' veterans, and that's a team that might just be the early, early favourite to win it all.
2. Which team had the most lacklustre off-season?
Yiu: Lacklustre might seem a little harsh considering the circumstances. It's hard to fault a team's wait-and-see approach with the outside world still gripped a raging pandemic, and the trickle-down effects of just two imports, the delay of the season, and uncertainty over the global basketball landscape and the class of imports available.
Perhaps uncertain is the more apt description here. The triumvirate of the Kings, United and Taipans have the most uncertain forecasts with gaping holes in their roster still to be filled.
The Kings lost two All-NBL talents in Andrew Bogut and Jae'Sean Tate. That's your frontcourt engine room. How do you replace that level of production (definitely for Tate, but certainly for Bogut too, on a per-minutes basis), savviness and defensive acumen?
On the United front, season-long questions over the fit of Melo Trimble and Shawn Long have been replaced by questions over just who United bring in to complement their locals?
And then there's Cairns. Last season's Cinderella team is missing THREE All-NBL players in Scott Machado, DJ Newbill and Cam Oliver. Brutal. Will any of them come back? Things can flip quickly, but that's a ginormous question mark for now.
As an aside, the Brisbane Bullets have stocked up on locals, but I'm not entirely sure where this team will get its zip.
After missing the playoffs, the Bullets lost All-NBL forward, Lamar Patterson, to the New Zealand Breakers. The offseason additions of Anthony Drmic and Harry Froling should bolster local depth, but Patterson leaves a gigantic, creative hole on the roster. We've seen this dance before.
As always, all of these things are in flux - teams are still building - but here's where we stand right at this moment in time.
Uluc: I'd echo Warren that 'lacklustre' may be harsh, but some teams just haven't made as big a splash as others; and, of course, the situations do vary.
One is Sydney, which did an impressive job of keeping Casper Ware and Xavier Cooks on board, but will lose Jae'Sean Tate and have been hamstrung by the Andrew Bogut waiting game. Bogut hasn't retired, but also hasn't committed to a return to the Kings, so the team hasn't been able to make that proper splash in free agency.
Then, we have the Cairns Taipans. The big question mark is whether they'll get two of their import trio of Cameron Oliver, Scott Machado, and D.J. Newbill back - there's a good chance that does happen, for what it's worth - but they've otherwise had a relatively underwhelming off-season. How many of Mike Kelly's free agency additions will actually be impact players? Mojave King has all the potential in the world, but that's obviously an unknown. Can Jordan Ngatai emerge into a good role player? Maybe. The point is, the Taipans have brought on some young, interesting pieces, but have they done enough?
3. Which player came away with the best deal?
Yiu: So, the boring (but obvious) answer is Bryce Cotton. The Wildcats secured the services of the league's best player for THREE years for reportedly around $2 million. He's only just turned 28. The Red Army have the chance to see the remaining years of Cotton's prime, secure in the knowledge that the playoffs are a basically a given. That's a bargain.
Elsewhere, Sunday Dech parlayed the additional production, from his uptick in playing time. at the Gong into a three-year deal with the 36ers. That's a nice story.
Uluc: We'll get the obvious one out of the way: Bryce Cotton got paid. Lots. The deal is for more than $2 million over three years, sources have told ESPN, so, yes, that's what we'd consider a good deal.
Next up, let's all be happy that Reuben Te Rangi has been freed. The Kiwi wing demonstrated the ability to stroke it from deep, and be an efficient piece on both ends, but somehow rarely got decent minutes in Brisbane, so it's good to see him on a team that could really use him. Assuming the South East Melbourne Phoenix go for an import point guard and centre, Te Rangi slots perfectly at the three-spot as a 3-and-D guy.
Another move that may have flown under the radar, but is good for both the player and team, is Angus Glover's three-year deal with Sydney. The combo guard used a quality season in Illawarra to lock in a long-term deal, on a team that would need him to fill minutes at his position. The Kings were extremely high on Glover going into free agency, and he turned a mutual interest into a situation where he'll have the opportunity to make an impact from day one in what's likely to be some sort of bench role.
Also, a quick shoutout to Kevin White, who many thought wouldn't be on an NBL roster ever again after his role in last off-season's Joey Wright drama, but managed to get a deal done with the Wildcats.
4. It's a stacked rookie class; who do you think could make the biggest impact?
Yiu: Rookie impact basically means opportunity. In that regard, the answer has to be Josh Giddey, right?
The much-hyped Next Star will have ample opportunity to handle the rock a tonne and learn the tricks of the trade from Donald Sloan. Flanked by hungry wing finishers, Giddey's ability to see the floor will be his greatest asset. How he handles the extra physicality is the big question mark.
Another who should get ample opportunity to run is Mojave King with the Cairns Taipans. This is more your area, Olgun. Who are the names to look out for?
Uluc: So, there are two names that immediately spring to mind here: Dejan Vasiljevic and Josh Giddey.
Both are probably starters for their respective teams and, while we've yet to see either in a pro environment, it's easy to see which skills will likely translate. Vasiljevic could start at the two-spot for Sydney and will likely be playing off the ball a lot, so expect his ability to score at all three levels - while being a sharpshooter from deep - mean he'll fill up the points column in a hurry.
Giddey has emerged as a legitimate first-round talent, and will see a lot of minutes handling the ball for Conner Henry's 36ers, so that usage should lead to production. The 6'8 point guard is as high-IQ as they come, and is in the midst of a smart, skilled roster; offensively, they have the potential to hum. The most enjoyable offensive team to watch could well be in Adelaide, and Giddey has the potential to be a big part of that.
5. Who is the most interesting signing?
Yiu: The unknown of imports and their fit is a question mark at the start of every season. To me, what's more interesting to me is how a change in scenery potentially reignites a player.
In that regard, I'll go with Cam Gliddon for this one. Gliddon was a shadow of himself last season at the Bullets. He became a sharpshooter who refused to shoot. He morphed from a fringe Boomer, into a role player with the Bullets, lost within the malaise that was the Bullets' 3-and-D rotation.
Now with the Phoenix, do we see the real Cam Gliddon show up?
The Wildcats repeated as champions despite a somewhat uneven season from Terrico White. With White now gone, Todd Blanchfield heads west to replace him at the 3-spot. The output of both were remarkably close across the regular season in NBL20.
The Wildcats lose the bouncy off-the-dribble threat of White, but gain an arguably better defender in Blanchfield.
Uluc: I'd go in a similar direction and say perhaps the most interesting thing to watch entering this coming season is what Todd Blanchfield brings to the Wildcats; with the import limit being cut to two, it means the wing effectively fills the Terrico White's former role.
In Blanchfield, we have a proven three-point shooter who can practically defend four positions, but has yet to really find his identity in the NBL. In Melbourne, he got lost as a guy who just stands in the corner, and he didn't make a significant impact in Illawarra while being one of the primary options. A Perth team with Cotton and the introduction of John Mooney means Blanchfield will have the opportunity to play somewhere in between those two roles, which might just bring the most out of him, and could be the jolt that lifts the Wildcats into a legitimate chase for a threepeat.
6. What are the biggest question marks?
Yiu: Sticking with the Phoenix here. Last season's surprise team in the first trimester flamed out as the season progressed. Mitch Creek, the raging bull, just wasn't himself by the final third of the season, and as a result, the Phoenix spluttered to the finish line in their inaugural season.
With no Tai Wesley, that should permanently shift Creek to the 4-spot, a more natural fit.
One of the big questions surrounding the team last season was getting the right mix of imports. John Roberson was literally the fire emoji on offence. The rest...weren't as assured.
One import spot will be for a point guard. What about the second slot? I think the central question to consider that will impact their decision will be: is Dane Pineau the starting centre for a playoff team?
If so, do you get an import scoring wing? Like all of the answers to these questions, time will tell.
Uluc: Whether Andrew Bogut retires from basketball is hanging over everyone in the sport's community, and I'm sure Chris Pongrass is feeling the full brunt of it. If he hangs up his sneakers, who do the Kings bring in? If he re-signs, how is his body, and can he last a full season without being banged up?
There are a few teams taking their sweet time with signing imports - it's purposeful, sources say, as they wait for a firm start date for the new season - but United and the Phoenix are interesting, because the local portion of both rosters are quite strong. Dean Vickerman's team may be just a quality wing away from competing for another title, so who might that person be? For South East Melbourne, another Roberson-type import point guard to put alongside Gliddon, Te Rangi, Creek, and a quality American five-man would probably give them one of the best, well-balanced starting groups in the league. Again, the question is who those pieces might be.
Lastly, I think there's a lot of intrigue around Deng Adel. The former Cleveland Cavalier is the Hawks' marquee local signing, and while he's shown his talent in the NBA G-League, we haven't seen him play FIBA basketball before. Will he be a two-way star, or maybe just a reliable-as-hell 3-and-D option alongside the incoming Tyler Harvey? How effective Adel will be at this level will be one of the more intriguing questions until the season starts, and it could determine the fortunes for Brian Goorjian's team.