Here we go again, state against state, mate against mate -- the battle for State of Origin bragging rights for another year. After last year's shock finish where Queensland overcame the odds (yet again) to upset the Blues in the decider, all eyes turn to Sydney for Game I of a new series.
Both states have thrown up plenty of selection surprises, with the Blues making 11 changes from Game III of last year, while the Maroons themselves have made six changes. Who has pulled the right rein? Which state will take a 1-0 lead into Game II in Melbourne?
We do our best to sort it all out.
Wednesday, May 27
State of Origin, Game 1
New South Wales vs. Queensland
Accor Stadium, Sydney, 8:05pm (AEST)
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Kotoni Staggs 5. Tolu Koula 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitch Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Haumole Olakau'atu 13. Isaah Yeo (c) Bench: 14. Cameron Murray 15. Victor Radley 16. Jacob Saifiti 17. Blayke Brailey 18. Ethan Strange 19. Casey McLean Reserve: Dylan Lucas
Coach: Laurie Daley
Queensland: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Cameron Munster 7. Sam Walker 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Max Plath Bench: 14. Briton Nikora 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Pat Carrigan 17. Trent Loiero 18. Ezra Mam 19. Gehamat Shibasaki, Reserve: 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
Coach: Billy Slater
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein Touchies: Matt Noyen, Phil Henderson
Bunker: Chris Butler
Prediction: Blues coach Laurie Daley was criticised last year after losing his first State of Origin series back at the helm. Many thought his selections and tactics proved costly in a series, which on paper, the Blues should have won. Regardless of how much blame Daley deserved, we are all well and truly aware of how meaningless the concept of "on paper" is when it comes to beating the Maroons.
Daley has left nothing in the kit for Game I of the 2026 series, running a broom through last year's squad and taking advantage of the new eligibility rules. Addin Fonua-Blake and Casey McLean (New Zealand) and Victor Radley (England) weren't eligible for selection this time last year and all three bring some added punch to the Blues lineup.
But Daley's biggest, boldest call, has been to resurrect the Origin career of fullback James Tedesco. Tedesco has been in career-best form this season and although Dylan Edwards is also playing well, and did nothing wrong last year, Daley has stated that he wants to play a style of football that suits Tedesco's game. This means the Blues will be going hard up the middle behind Fonua-Blake and Mitch Barnett, with Roosters teammate Reece Robson looking for the perfect opportunity to set Tedesco on his way through the back-pedalling ruck defenders. They plan to cause chaos in the middle of the field, before involving the halves and outside backs.
Queensland coach Billy Slater has also thrown up a surprise at fullback, leaving Reece Walsh out of the squad entirely and throwing the No. 1 jersey back to Kalyn Ponga. Ponga has been playing well for the much-improved Knights this season and when fit has always been a threat in a Maroons jersey. Slater sees Ponga as must-have for the squad and with fullback being his best position; Walsh was unfortunately squeezed out.
With Tom Dearden out injured, the Maroons have selected Roosters halfback Sam Walker to play alongside Cameron Munster, with Ezra Mam playing backup to both from the bench. The ever dangerous Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow lurks in the centres, just waiting to take advantage of some good, clean ball.
Both teams have their backline threats, but as the old saying goes; Origin is won in the forwards, with the backs just deciding the score.
Queensland have a very experienced Origin rotation with Thomas Flegler, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Reuben Cotter and Kurt Capewell the starting core, and Lindsay Collins, Pat Carrigan and Trent Loiero waiting to contribute from the bench.
The Blues have plenty of fire in their pack with Addin Fonua-Blake, Mitch Barnett, Hudson Young and Haumole Olakau'atu starting and Cameron Murray, Victor Radley and Jacob Saifiti waiting to join the battle. What they lack in Origin experience, they should make up for in sheer ferocity. They will need to work on melding together defensively, as the familiarity the Maroons pack enjoys will give them an advantage in that regard.
With the Blues coming out ahead, if only slightly, in the forwards, I think the halves Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses will take control of the game and ensure the Blues finish in front. Look for Tedesco to make the most of any forward dominance and make a triumphant return to the arena he has graced so well in the past.
Origin being Origin however, it would not surprise anyone to see the Maroons cause another upset.
Tip: Blues by 10
PointsBet odds: Blues $1.55 (-4.5 $1.95) Maroons $2.40 (+4.5 $1.83)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.